279 Cenizo · Carrizo Hill, TX 78834

$60,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1999 10,802 sqft lot $40/sqft · 84% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer-Upper Investment Opportunity! Three-bedroom, one-bath home situated on a corner lot featuring a pier and beam foundation, covered carport, and a small storage shed. Property needs repairs but offers strong potential for investors or buyers looking to renovate. Cash or owner financing available with down payment; terms negotiable.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Corner lot
• Small storage shed

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PIER AND BEAM FOUNDATION
• COVERED CARPORT
• SMALL STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,500 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Carrizo Springs CISD (town): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #780 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Dimmit County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Dimmit County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.06%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $364,577
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: -83.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
153 Huisache St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-2%)	23mo	$199,999	$136	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $53,400
• Equity at exit: $39,965

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.74×
• Total profit: $130,068
• Equity at exit: $74,497

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78834

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $540

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $567	-5% $550	+0% $533	+5% $516	+10% $499
Rent	-10% $437	-5% $485	+0% $533	+5% $581	+10% $629
Rate	-1.0pp $563	-0.5pp $548	base $533	+0.5pp $517	+1.0pp $502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $60,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $60,000 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 147 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    status Back on Market 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Fixer-Upper Investment Opportunity! Three-bedroom, one-bath home situated on a corner lot featuring a pier and beam foundation, covered carport, and a small storage shed. Property needs repairs but offers strong potential for investors or buyers looking to renovate. Cash or owner financing available with down payment; terms negotiable.

17. 2026-05-01
    historical 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Fixer-Upper Investment Opportunity! Three-bedroom, one-bath home situated on a corner lot featuring a pier and beam foundation, covered carport, and a small storage shed. Property needs repairs but offers strong potential for investors or buyers looking to renovate. Cash or owner financing available with down payment; terms negotiable.

18. 2025-12-29
    listed $60,000 New 338-char remark

    Show marketing remark (338 chars)

    Fixer-Upper Investment Opportunity! Three-bedroom, one-bath home situated on a corner lot featuring a pier and beam foundation, covered carport, and a small storage shed. Property needs repairs but offers strong potential for investors or buyers looking to renovate. Cash or owner financing available with down payment; terms negotiable.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,042 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$56/yr (+$5/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,166
• − Management: −$1,166
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $5,793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,390
• After-tax cash flow: $5,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrizo Springs CISD
• NCES district ID: 4812990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $32,354
• Composite: 17.03/100
• National rank: #9127
• State rank: #780 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carrizo Hill

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1500
• US rank: #25667

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrizo Hill, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,204

Population outlook (Dimmit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,089 people
• By 2030: 14,217 · +8.6%
• By 2040: 16,685 · +27.5%
• By 2050: 19,361 · +47.9%
• By 2075: 26,356 · +101.4%
• By 2100: 31,128 · +137.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 87% Two or more races 59% White 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 78% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Dimmit

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.5% · R 48.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.4pp toward R · 2008: 50.7pp · 2024: 3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.3 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+37.2 2012: D+47.3 2008: D+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Current HPI: 127.0655
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-12-29 Listed $60,000 LERA

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,042 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.