Northwood Plan

Bastrop, TX 78602

$205,990F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,228 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 1096 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,877/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,394
• Tax + insurance: −$443
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-354/mo
• Annual: $-4,245/yr
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.70%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $74,411

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $206k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-354 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (8.9% below list).
• It's been on market 1096 days — a 12% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#947 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• Bastrop ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #670 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mina El (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 785 students, 55% FRL); Bastrop Middle (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 929 students, 80% FRL); Bastrop H S (math 23% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,621 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1500 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.1% in Bastrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 1096 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.