Northwood Plan · Bastrop, TX 78602

$205,990

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,228 sqft · SingleFamily · 1004 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first level of this two-story home is host the family room, kitchen and dining room, arranged in a convenient and contemporary open concept design that promotes effortless flow between spaces. Three bedrooms and a full bathroom are situated upstairs.

Key facts

• Listed 1003 days

🏗️ New construction. The $205,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $266,869.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $206k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.0% in Bastrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#947 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• Bastrop ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #670 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mina El (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 785 students, 55% FRL); Bastrop Middle (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 929 students, 80% FRL); Bastrop H S (math 23% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,621 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1237 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1004 days — a 12% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,271 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1004 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.83%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,869
• List price: $205,990
• Delta: -22.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1133 Largemouth Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+0%)	4mo	$220,950	$180	86
1206 Smallmouth Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+0%)	18mo	$275,000	$224	79
106 Double Barrel Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,361 (+11%)	1mo	$267,000	$196	64
206 Mossberg Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,361 (+11%)	17mo	$299,000	$220	56
302 Pack Horse Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,361 (+11%)	1mo	$260,000	$191	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-71,832
• Equity at exit: $39,791

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-113,442
• Equity at exit: $23,074

Cash invested: $74,723 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $272,445 ($189/sqft)
• Median days on market: 48 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +15.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78602

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1237
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,875 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,399
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$334 /mo · $4,003/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,335

Max offer price $214,340

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-179	-5% $-271	+0% $-363	+5% $-455	+10% $-547
Rent	-10% $-511	-5% $-437	+0% $-363	+5% $-289	+10% $-215
Rate	-1.0pp $-229	-0.5pp $-295	base $-363	+0.5pp $-432	+1.0pp $-503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,717
• Closing costs: $8,006
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1220 Smallmouth Rd Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	67d	1	0.07mi
1232 Cattail Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,700	$1.18	64d	1	0.07mi
1232 Cattail Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,700	$1.18	67d	1	0.07mi
418 Paddlefish Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	67d	1	0.17mi
418 Paddlefish Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	64d	1	0.17mi
103 Hamilton Pool Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,895	$1.45	38d	1	0.87mi
211 Hamilton Pool Ln Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,990	$1.34	36d	1	0.87mi
223 Nicole Way Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1318	$1,800	$1.37	53d	1	0.88mi
112 S Fitzwilliams Ln Unit B Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,600	$1.28	25d	1	1.00mi
223 Hidden Springs Dr Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,750	$1.38	24d	1	1.02mi
945 Blakey Ln Bastrop, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$2,277	$1.98	9d	55	1.03mi
442 Old Austin Hwy Bastrop, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,350	$1.58	9d	6	1.04mi
131 Trailstone Dr Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	93d	1	1.11mi
131 Trailstone Dr Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	73d	1	1.11mi
117 Calm Water Loop Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	93d	1	1.14mi
104 Hidden Springs Dr Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,750	$1.36	42d	1	1.19mi
151 Puerto Plata Ave Bastrop, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,210	$2.00	9d	12	1.34mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $205,990 Active 1004 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $205,990 Active 1002 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $205,990 Active 1001 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $205,990 Active 1000 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $205,990 Active 999 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $205,990 Active 996 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $205,990 Active 994 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $205,990 Active 993 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $205,990 Active 991 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $205,990 Active 989 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $205,990 Active 988 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $205,990 Active 987 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $205,990 Active 986 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $205,990 Active 985 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $205,990 Active 983 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $205,990 Active 982 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $205,990 Active 981 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $205,990 Active 980 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $205,990 Active 979 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $205,990 Active 978 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $205,990 Active 977 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $205,990 Active 976 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $205,990 Active 975 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $205,990 Active 974 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $205,990 Active 972 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $205,990 Active 971 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $205,990 Active 970 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $205,990 Active 968 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $205,990 Active 967 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $205,990 Active 966 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $205,990 Active 965 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $205,990 Active 964 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $205,990 Active 963 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $205,990 Active 962 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $205,990 Active 961 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $205,990 Active 959 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $205,990 Active 957 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $205,990 Active 956 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $205,990 Active 953 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $205,990 Active 952 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $205,990 Active 951 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $205,990 Active 950 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $205,990 Active 948 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $205,990 Active 944 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,990 Active 943 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,990 Active 942 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,990 Active 939 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,990 Active 938 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,990 Active 937 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,990 Active 936 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,949
• − Property taxes: −$4,003
• − Insurance: −$1,334
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
• − Management: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$7,763
• Taxable loss: −$9,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,196
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,140–$18,420 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern and open floor plan. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for a fresh paint job and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and appealing to modern buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mina El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Bastrop Middle F TX #971/1,662 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Bastrop H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bastrop ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809570
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,010
• Composite: 23.87/100
• National rank: #7799
• State rank: #670 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Bastrop

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #947
• US rank: #16846

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bastrop, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 94,260 people
• City population: 38,190
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,190
• Household income: $89,968
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.68%
• Current HPI: 247.1145
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.04%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-12 Price Changed $205,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-02 Price Changed $220,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $218,990 Zillow