10961 Desert Lawn Dr #101

Calimesa, CA 92320

$213,500B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 253 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,120
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $1,276/mo
• Annual: $15,315/yr
• Cap rate: 13.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.62%
• DSCR: 2.14
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $59,780

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $214k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $214k).
• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#865 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Beaumont Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #168 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 16 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $214k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 6.7% in Calimesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.