10961 Desert Lawn Dr #101 · Calimesa, CA 92320

$213,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 253 Days on market

Built 1988 $127/sqft · 11% below area Est $239k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to Plantation of the Lakes a 55+ community. This spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers approximately 1,680 sq. ft. of comfortable living with an open floor plan, soaring ceilings, and a cozy fireplace. The kitchen features plenty of cabinet storage and a walk-in pantry, making it both functional and inviting. Recent updates include new flooring, primary bathroom, piers, the roof (approx. 4 years old) and windows (approx. 2 years old), giving peace of mind for years to come. Enjoy the convenience of being within walking distance to the community center, where you can take advantage of all the wonderful amenities Plantation of the Lakes has to offer. This home is perfect for those seeking comfort, community, and convenience. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Primary bathroom
• Community center

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COZY FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• NEW FLOORING
• PRIMARY BATHROOM
• COMMUNITY CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $214k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $214k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 6.7% in Calimesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#865 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Beaumont Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #168 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $214k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.62%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,000
• List price: $213,500
• Delta: -10.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #79	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+1%)	1mo	$90,000	$53	92
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #21	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (-1%)	4mo	$250,000	$151	89
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #331	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,675 (-0%)	5mo	$217,000	$130	87
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #466	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-5%)	1mo	$200,000	$125	87
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #394	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,612 (-4%)	8mo	$255,000	$158	87
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #82	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,560 (-7%)	3mo	$265,000	$170	85
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #453	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (-6%)	3mo	$228,000	$144	83
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #243	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+8%)	4mo	$215,000	$118	77
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #162	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	2mo	$120,000	$83	75
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #451	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,612 (-4%)	6mo	$235,000	$146	75
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #380	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,823 (+8%)	3mo	$245,000	$134	74
10961 Desert Lawn #433	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,890 (+12%)	0mo	$250,000	$132	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $46,598
• Equity at exit: $31,834

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $144,881
• Equity at exit: $18,460

Cash invested: $59,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92320

• Home prices YoY: -22.2%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,120
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $518/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $1,276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,585

Max offer price $213,500

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,397	-5% $1,337	+0% $1,276	+5% $1,216	+10% $1,155
Rent	-10% $1,023	-5% $1,150	+0% $1,276	+5% $1,403	+10% $1,529
Rate	-1.0pp $1,384	-0.5pp $1,331	base $1,276	+0.5pp $1,221	+1.0pp $1,165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,375
• Closing costs: $6,405
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35258 Vernon Dr Beaumont, CA	3.0	1.5	1990	$3,200	$1.61	0d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-02-12
   price $213,500 801-char remark

   Show marketing remark (801 chars)

   Welcome home to Plantation of the Lakes a 55+ community. This spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers approximately 1,680 sq. ft. of comfortable living with an open floor plan, soaring ceilings, and a cozy fireplace. The kitchen features plenty of cabinet storage and a walk-in pantry, making it both functional and inviting. Recent updates include new flooring, primary bathroom, piers, the roof (approx. 4 years old) and windows (approx. 2 years old), giving peace of mind for years to come. Enjoy the convenience of being within walking distance to the community center, where you can take advantage of all the wonderful amenities Plantation of the Lakes has to offer. This home is perfect for those seeking comfort, community, and convenience. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

2. 2025-09-15
   listed $215,999 Active 801-char remark

   Show marketing remark (801 chars)

   Welcome home to Plantation of the Lakes a 55+ community. This spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers approximately 1,680 sq. ft. of comfortable living with an open floor plan, soaring ceilings, and a cozy fireplace. The kitchen features plenty of cabinet storage and a walk-in pantry, making it both functional and inviting. Recent updates include new flooring, primary bathroom, piers, the roof (approx. 4 years old) and windows (approx. 2 years old), giving peace of mind for years to come. Enjoy the convenience of being within walking distance to the community center, where you can take advantage of all the wonderful amenities Plantation of the Lakes has to offer. This home is perfect for those seeking comfort, community, and convenience. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

3. 2025-05-29
   status Active
4. 2025-02-18
   price $217,000
5. 2024-10-10
   price $211,999
6. 2024-09-16
   listed $213,999 Active
7. 2024-09-06
   historical
8. 2024-08-08
   price $205,000
9. 2024-07-16
   listed $213,999 Active
10. 2023-11-23
    status Active
11. 2023-09-30
    listed $190,000 Active
12. 2023-03-13
    historical
13. 2023-03-07
    price $177,999
14. 2023-02-09
    listed $187,500 Active
15. 2022-06-17
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed Sale
16. 2022-06-08
    status Pending Sale
17. 2022-05-09
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2022-05-08
    status Active
19. 2022-05-08
    price $135,000
20. 2022-04-27
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2022-04-20
    status Active
22. 2022-04-12
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2022-04-07
    listed $130,000 Active
24. 2022-01-05
    historical
25. 2021-12-18
    status Active
26. 2021-12-03
    price $129,900
27. 2021-12-02
    price $134,900
28. 2021-11-12
    listed $149,900 Active
29. 2021-11-09
    historical
30. 2016-02-05
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed Sale
31. 2016-01-27
    status Pending Sale
32. 2016-01-01
    historical Active Under Contract
33. 2015-11-18
    price $69,900
34. 2015-10-25
    listed $74,900 Active
35. 2013-09-18
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed
36. 2013-09-08
    status Pending
37. 2013-08-23
    price $39,900
38. 2013-05-09
    listed $55,000 Active
39. 2013-05-06
    historical
40. 2012-11-07
    price $59,000
41. 2012-08-14
    listed $64,500 Active
42. 2007-02-22
    historical
43. 2006-08-21
    listed $149,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $518 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,623 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,104/yr (+$92/mo · 213.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,959
• − Property taxes: −$518
• − Insurance: −$1,068
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,072
• − Management: −$3,072
• − Depreciation: −$6,211
• Taxable income: $12,500
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,000
• After-tax cash flow: $12,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaumont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604290
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $60,635
• Composite: 40.37/100
• National rank: #3736
• State rank: #168 of 517 in CA

Livability — Calimesa

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #865
• US rank: #23579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calimesa, CA
• City population: 10,680
• Population (ZIP): 10,680

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.13%
• Current HPI: 364.3627
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+43.3% since first listed

43 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $213,500 CRMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $215,999 CRMLS
• 2025-05-29 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $217,000 CRMLS
• 2024-10-10 Price Changed $211,999 CRMLS
• 2024-09-16 Listed $213,999 CRMLS
• 2024-09-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $205,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-16 Listed $213,999 CRMLS
• 2023-11-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-09-30 Listed $190,000 CRMLS
• 2023-03-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-03-07 Price Changed $177,999 CRMLS
• 2023-02-09 Listed $187,500 CRMLS
• 2022-06-17 Sold (MLS) $135,000 CRMLS
• 2022-06-08 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-05-09 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2022-05-08 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-05-08 Price Changed $135,000 CRMLS
• 2022-04-27 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2022-04-20 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-04-12 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2022-04-07 Listed $130,000 CRMLS
• 2022-01-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2021-12-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2021-12-03 Price Changed $129,900 CRMLS
• 2021-12-02 Price Changed $134,900 CRMLS
• 2021-11-12 Listed $149,900 CRMLS
• 2021-11-09 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2016-02-05 Sold (MLS) $60,000 CRMLS
• 2016-01-27 Pending — CRMLS
• 2016-01-01 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2015-11-18 Price Changed $69,900 CRMLS
• 2015-10-25 Listed $74,900 CRMLS
• 2013-09-18 Sold (MLS) $35,000 CRMLS
• 2013-09-08 Pending — CRMLS
• 2013-08-23 Price Changed $39,900 CRMLS
• 2013-05-09 Listed $55,000 CRMLS
• 2013-05-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2012-11-07 Price Changed $59,000 CRMLS
• 2012-08-14 Listed $64,500 CRMLS
• 2007-02-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-08-21 Listed $149,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $518 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.