43 Saddlebrush Rd

Pembroke, GA 31308

$319,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,149 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,679
• Tax + insurance: −$414
• HOA: −$34
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-34/mo
• Annual: $-405/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $89,656

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $319k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-405/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (16.9% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $265k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#144 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Bryan County (rural): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #14 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bryan County Elementary School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade F, #370 of 1,228 statewide, top 30%, 962 students, 65% FRL); Bryan County Middle School (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #206 of 470 statewide, top 45%, 400 students, 68% FRL); Bryan County High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #184 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 608 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 29% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bryan County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 510 units permitted in Bryan County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bryan County population projected at +64% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $218k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Pembroke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.