43 Saddlebrush Rd · Pembroke, GA 31308

$319,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,149 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2019 0.68 ac lot $34/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * MOVE IN READY * * The "Terrific" Turner Plan by Beacon New Homes! 2247 sq ft, 4BR/2.5BA With Office/Flex Room. Features Include, Front Exterior has Shake and Brick Accents. Covered Front Porch. Entire First Floor has Vinyl Plank Flooring and 9' Ceilings. 5 1/4" Baseboards and Rounded Drywall Corners Throughout. Formal Dining Room with Crown Molding, Chair Rail and Wainscoting. Kitchen has Granite Island and Counter Tops, Pendant Lights over the Island and Recessed Lighting. Family Room has Light/Fan. All Bedrooms Upstairs. Master Bedroom has Vaulted Ceiling and Large Walk In Closet. Master Bath has Dual Comfort Height Vanity Sinks with Granite Counter Tops. Covered and Screened patio with a Ceiling Fan. Front Yard Sodded. Energy Efficient Features, Spray Foam Insulation and Low "E" Double Paned Windows. 2-10 Builder Home Warranty. The Builder Will Pay Up to $4000 Towards Closing Costs with a Preferred Lender.

Key facts

• Wainscoting
• Formal dining room
• Separate flex space

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• SEPARATE FLEX SPACE
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• WAINSCOTING
• CROWN MOLDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Green energy features include insulation and energy-efficient windows; Subdivision: Hidden Creek
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $350

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction; 2-story; Builder: Beacon New Homes (Turner model); Has a view
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Porch; Screened patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; High ceilings; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

🏗️ New construction. The $319,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $320,201.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-405/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Pembroke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#144 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Bryan County (rural): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #14 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bryan County Elementary School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade F, #370 of 1,228 statewide, top 30%, 962 students, 65% FRL); Bryan County Middle School (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #206 of 470 statewide, top 45%, 400 students, 68% FRL); Bryan County High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #184 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 608 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 29% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bryan County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 510 units permitted in Bryan County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bryan County population projected at +64% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $218k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,000 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,201
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Frank Edwards Rd	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,080 (-3%)	6mo	$310,500	$149	80
9 Sagefield Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,151 (+0%)	12mo	$359,000	$167	77
6 Broken Bit Rd	0.11mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,006 (-7%)	6mo	$318,000	$159	71
100 Ben Grady Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,170 (+1%)	14mo	$323,500	$149	67
25 Frank Edwards Rd	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,334 (+9%)	4mo	$316,000	$135	66
315 Frank Edwards Rd	0.37mi	4/2.5	1,984 (-8%)	6mo	$284,000	$143	65
140 Mattie Belle Davis St	0.34mi	4/2.5	1,889 (-12%)	1mo	$315,000	$167	64
7 Hidden Creek Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,187 (+2%)	22mo	$342,500	$157	62
170 Frank Edwards Rd	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,944 (-10%)	16mo	$305,000	$157	59
40 Dr Daniel Edwards St	0.29mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,432 (+13%)	15mo	$337,000	$139	47
104 Saddlebrush Rd	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,464 (+15%)	19mo	$320,000	$130	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-54,046
• Equity at exit: $47,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-49,878
• Equity at exit: $27,685

Cash invested: $89,656 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31308

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,679
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,368/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,693

Max offer price $314,246

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $57	+0% $-34	+5% $-124	+10% $-215
Rent	-10% $-243	-5% $-138	+0% $-34	+5% $71	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $48	base $-34	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,050
• Closing costs: $9,606
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 Ben Grady Dr Ellabell, GA	4.0	2.5	2481	$2,650	$1.07	25d	1	0.52mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 693-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $319,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,368 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,368 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,936
• − Property taxes: −$3,368
• − Insurance: −$1,601
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,544
• − Management: −$2,544
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$9,315
• Taxable loss: −$5,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,420
• After-tax cash flow: $1,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan County
• NCES district ID: 1300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,465
• Composite: 44.99/100
• National rank: #2701
• State rank: #14 of 174 in GA

Livability — Pembroke

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #9707

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,814

Population outlook (Bryan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,980 people
• By 2030: 51,583 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 63,184 · +37.4%
• By 2050: 75,400 · +64.0%
• By 2075: 105,363 · +129.1%
• By 2100: 124,959 · +171.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bryan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.3) · D 31.6% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.3pp toward D · 2008: -42.6pp · 2024: -36.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.3 2020: R+35.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+42.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.60%
• Current HPI: 249.2442
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+46.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $319,000 Hive MLS
• 2019-12-16 Sold (MLS) $218,419 Hive MLS
• 2019-09-20 Listed $218,419 Hive MLS
• 2019-09-20 Listed $218,419 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,368 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.