1002 Hearrell St

Neosho, MO 64850

$46,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Built 1940 · Other · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $829/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax + insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $339/mo
• Annual: $4,072/yr
• Cap rate: 15.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.61%
• DSCR: 2.41
• 1% rule: 1.80%
• Cash to close: $12,880

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $46k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($829 rent vs $46k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $45k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $318 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#103 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Neosho School District (town): math 36% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #125 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Benton Elem. (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #611 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 505 students, 69% FRL); Neosho High (math 21% / reading 57%, grade F, #287 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 1,491 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 110 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newton County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 2.9% in Neosho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.