29811 W Essex Ct

New Haven, MI 48051

$88,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 242 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,606/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$466
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $654/mo
• Annual: $7,850/yr
• Cap rate: 15.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.54%
• DSCR: 2.40
• 1% rule: 1.81%
• Cash to close: $24,892

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#650 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• L'Anse Creuse Public Schools (suburban): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #184 of 540 in MI (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Francis A Higgins Elem School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #433 of 1,397 statewide, top 34%, 421 students, 43% FRL); Middle School East (math 34% / reading 52%, grade D-, #181 of 493 statewide, top 37%, 618 students, 43% FRL); High School North (math 34% / reading 59%, grade D-, #208 of 713 statewide, top 29%, 1,588 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 4.1% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.