29811 W Essex Ct · New Haven, MI 48051

$88,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 242 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $61/sqft · 98% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Love to host and entertain. This is the home for you. Welcome to a stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offering 1456 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. The heart of the home is the kitchen, featuring an extra large island with storage and room for seating. It perfectly separates the main living room from a spacious secondary area ideal for a dining room, rec room, or second living space. The open layout is perfect for gatherings and everyday living. The primary bedroom is a private retreat with a walk in closet and a spa like bathroom, thoughtfully located on one end of the home. The additional two bedrooms and main bathroom are on the opposite end, offering comfort and privacy for everyone. Additional highlights include a laundry room with washer and dryer hookups, central air, a private drive, and a shed. This brand new home is completely move in ready. Some photos have been virtually staged to help showcase the homes potential. Discover your dream home at Carriage Way in Chesterfield, MI. Enjoy convenient access to the Hall Road M 59 corridor with premier shopping, dining, and amenities nearby. The community offers a clubhouse, banquet facilities, pet friendly spaces, a playground, open green areas, and a sparkling swimming pool. Top rated schools and the parks of Anchor Bay are just minutes away. Schedule your tour today and experience the lifestyle waiting for you at Carriage Way.

Key facts

• Convenient location
• Built 2025
• Listed 241 days

Tags

• CARRIAGE WAY COMMUNITY
• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.2% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#650 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• L'Anse Creuse Public Schools (suburban): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #184 of 540 in MI (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $78,232 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.51%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $44,900
• List price: $88,900
• Delta: 98.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52529 Pineview Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	9mo	$163,000	$112	86
29636 Cambridge Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+3%)	6mo	$44,900	$30	85
52193 Harrisburg Ln	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,563 (+7%)	24mo	$62,000	$40	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $27,245
• Equity at exit: $13,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $77,423
• Equity at exit: $7,686

Cash invested: $24,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48051

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,605 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$466
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,334/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $778

Max offer price $88,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $715	-5% $684	+0% $654	+5% $623	+10% $592
Rent	-10% $527	-5% $590	+0% $654	+5% $717	+10% $780
Rate	-1.0pp $698	-0.5pp $676	base $654	+0.5pp $631	+1.0pp $607

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,225
• Closing costs: $2,667
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29811 W Essex Ct Unit 114 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,729	$1.19	44d	1	0.02mi
29810 W Essex Ct Unit 107 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,439	$1.36	6d	1	0.05mi
29778 W Essex Ct Unit 109 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,469	$1.39	44d	1	0.05mi
52436 Winston Ct Unit 209 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,479	$1.40	44d	1	0.07mi
29909 Flushing Dr Unit 71 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,669	$1.16	17d	1	0.09mi
29638 Danbury Ct Unit 240 New Baltimore, MI	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,749	$1.12	44d	1	0.10mi
29652 Cambridge Ct Unit 253 New Baltimore, MI	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,729	$1.03	0d	1	0.12mi
52780 S Zacharias Ct Unit 152 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,499	$1.42	0d	1	0.12mi
52758 S Yorktown Ct Unit 176 New Baltimore, MI	2.0	2.0	960	$1,449	$1.51	0d	1	0.13mi
52792 S Zacharias Ct Unit 151 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,479	$1.40	0d	1	0.13mi
29649 Cambridge Ct Unit 256 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,579	$1.37	0d	1	0.14mi
52705 Van Buren Dr Unit 297 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,479	$1.40	0d	1	0.16mi
52871 N Zacharias Ct Unit 161 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,519	$1.32	0d	1	0.17mi
52962 N Yorktown Ct Unit 168 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,519	$1.44	0d	1	0.20mi
29805 Jamestown Dr Unit 435 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,739	$1.29	0d	1	0.20mi
52167 Williamsburg Ln Unit 355 New Baltimore, MI	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,739	$1.04	44d	1	0.23mi
29890 Donna Ln New Baltimore, MI	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,500	$1.34	0d	1	0.61mi
28346 Adler Park Dr S #246 Chesterfield, MI	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,750	$1.31	44d	1	0.79mi
51602 Stern Ln New Baltimore, MI	2.0	2.0	1562	$1,775	$1.14	17d	1	0.82mi
51596 Stern Ln New Baltimore, MI	2.0	2.0	1550	$1,790	$1.15	19d	1	0.84mi
51590 Stern Ln New Baltimore, MI	2.0	2.0	1562	$1,535	$0.98	0d	1	0.84mi
51590 Stern Ln New Baltimore, MI	2.0	2.0	1562	$1,535	$0.98	3d	1	0.84mi
28218 S Pointe Ln New Baltimore, MI	2.0	2.0	1425	$2,100	$1.47	25d	1	0.85mi
28218 S Pointe Ln New Baltimore, MI	2.0	2.0	1427	$1,850	$1.30	6d	1	0.85mi
28220 Delano Dr New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,895	$1.18	25d	1	1.01mi
28260 Delano Dr New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	44d	1	1.03mi
50450 Bay Run N #50 Chesterfield, MI	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,500	$1.25	18d	1	1.03mi
50031 S Benny Ct New Baltimore, MI	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,450	$1.37	44d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $88,900 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,900 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,900 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,900 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,900 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,900 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,900 Active 233 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,900 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $88,900 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $88,900 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $88,900 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $88,900 Active 224 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $88,900 Active 223 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $88,900 Active 222 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,900 Active 221 DOM
16. 2025-10-31
    status Active 1417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1417 chars)

    Love to host and entertain. This is the home for you. Welcome to a stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offering 1456 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. The heart of the home is the kitchen, featuring an extra large island with storage and room for seating. It perfectly separates the main living room from a spacious secondary area ideal for a dining room, rec room, or second living space. The open layout is perfect for gatherings and everyday living. The primary bedroom is a private retreat with a walk in closet and a spa like bathroom, thoughtfully located on one end of the home. The additional two bedrooms and main bathroom are on the opposite end, offering comfort and privacy for everyone. Additional highlights include a laundry room with washer and dryer hookups, central air, a private drive, and a shed. This brand new home is completely move in ready. Some photos have been virtually staged to help showcase the homes potential. Discover your dream home at Carriage Way in Chesterfield, MI. Enjoy convenient access to the Hall Road M 59 corridor with premier shopping, dining, and amenities nearby. The community offers a clubhouse, banquet facilities, pet friendly spaces, a playground, open green areas, and a sparkling swimming pool. Top rated schools and the parks of Anchor Bay are just minutes away. Schedule your tour today and experience the lifestyle waiting for you at Carriage Way.

17. 2025-10-31
    historical 1417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1417 chars)

    Love to host and entertain. This is the home for you. Welcome to a stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offering 1456 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. The heart of the home is the kitchen, featuring an extra large island with storage and room for seating. It perfectly separates the main living room from a spacious secondary area ideal for a dining room, rec room, or second living space. The open layout is perfect for gatherings and everyday living. The primary bedroom is a private retreat with a walk in closet and a spa like bathroom, thoughtfully located on one end of the home. The additional two bedrooms and main bathroom are on the opposite end, offering comfort and privacy for everyone. Additional highlights include a laundry room with washer and dryer hookups, central air, a private drive, and a shed. This brand new home is completely move in ready. Some photos have been virtually staged to help showcase the homes potential. Discover your dream home at Carriage Way in Chesterfield, MI. Enjoy convenient access to the Hall Road M 59 corridor with premier shopping, dining, and amenities nearby. The community offers a clubhouse, banquet facilities, pet friendly spaces, a playground, open green areas, and a sparkling swimming pool. Top rated schools and the parks of Anchor Bay are just minutes away. Schedule your tour today and experience the lifestyle waiting for you at Carriage Way.

18. 2025-10-21
    listed $88,900 Active 1417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1417 chars)

    Love to host and entertain. This is the home for you. Welcome to a stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offering 1456 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. The heart of the home is the kitchen, featuring an extra large island with storage and room for seating. It perfectly separates the main living room from a spacious secondary area ideal for a dining room, rec room, or second living space. The open layout is perfect for gatherings and everyday living. The primary bedroom is a private retreat with a walk in closet and a spa like bathroom, thoughtfully located on one end of the home. The additional two bedrooms and main bathroom are on the opposite end, offering comfort and privacy for everyone. Additional highlights include a laundry room with washer and dryer hookups, central air, a private drive, and a shed. This brand new home is completely move in ready. Some photos have been virtually staged to help showcase the homes potential. Discover your dream home at Carriage Way in Chesterfield, MI. Enjoy convenient access to the Hall Road M 59 corridor with premier shopping, dining, and amenities nearby. The community offers a clubhouse, banquet facilities, pet friendly spaces, a playground, open green areas, and a sparkling swimming pool. Top rated schools and the parks of Anchor Bay are just minutes away. Schedule your tour today and experience the lifestyle waiting for you at Carriage Way.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,980
• − Property taxes: −$1,334
• − Insurance: −$444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − Depreciation: −$2,586
• Taxable income: $6,834
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,640
• After-tax cash flow: $6,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is in good condition with a good layout and curb appeal. It is ready for immediate move-in and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Rental Clean and maintain the HVAC system — Ensures the system is running efficiently and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental Clean and maintain the HVAC system — Ensures the system is running efficiently and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: L'Anse Creuse Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2621870
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,757
• Composite: 35.99/100
• National rank: #4790
• State rank: #184 of 540 in MI

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #650
• US rank: #22110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,065
• Population (ZIP): 17,716

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.06%
• Current HPI: 210.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-31 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Listed $88,900 Zillow