Jenna - Modern Plan

Mesquite, TX 75126

$251,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,689 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 224 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,974
• Tax + insurance: −$627
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-947/mo
• Annual: $-11,361/yr
• Cap rate: 3.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.78%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $105,413

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $252k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-947 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson El (math 57% / reading 50%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 694 students, 36% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 3067 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 118d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.