Jenna - Modern Plan · Mesquite, TX 75126

$251,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,689 sqft · SingleFamily · 224 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Jenna modern: open 2 Story Townhouse Floor Plan floor plan highlights: 2 Car Garage, Open-Concept Floor Plan, Storage-Focused Kitchen Design, Convenient 2nd Floor Laundry, and more! Introducing the Jenna Modern Floor Plan townhouse, an enchanting 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom abode offering a remarkable 1,689 square feet of living space. This two-story marvel stands poised for sale, ready to embrace you as its new homeowner. Step inside to discover a harmoniously integrated open floor plan, seamlessly merging the living, kitchen, and dining areas on the first floor. Revel in the comfort of abundant natural light flooding the living space, while the U-shaped kitchen boasts a spacious walk-in pantry, inviting culinary adventures and ample storage. The owner's entry from the rear two-car garage adds a touch of convenience to your daily routine, ensuring effortless transitions from car to home.

Key facts

• Walk in pantry
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 223 days

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• STORAGE FOCUSED KITCHEN DESIGN
• WALK IN PANTRY
• OWNER'S ENTRY FROM GARAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $251,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $376,476.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $252k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-947 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson El (math 57% / reading 50%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 694 students, 36% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 3067 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 118d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,492 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.78%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,476
• List price: $251,990
• Delta: -33.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9501 Stonefruit	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,607 (-5%)	15mo	$345,061	$215	72
9821 Dahlia Blvd	0.13mi	3/2.5	2,026 (+20%)	5mo	$344,990	$170	65
9452 Dahlia Blvd	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-16%)	5mo	$299,990	$210	59
9312 Persimmon	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,984 (+18%)	6mo	$389,104	$196	56
9324 Laurel Wreath	0.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,984 (+18%)	13mo	$381,670	$192	52
10221 Cimarron Trl	0.94mi	3/2.0	1,870 (+11%)	6mo	$449,900	$241	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-124,552
• Equity at exit: $56,134

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.89×
• Total profit: $-199,008
• Equity at exit: $32,551

Cash invested: $105,413 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 42.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $293,990 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 172 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +36.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 3067
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,974
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$471 /mo · $5,647/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-947

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,293

Max offer price $239,479

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-687	-5% $-817	+0% $-947	+5% $-1,077	+10% $-1,207
Rent	-10% $-1,112	-5% $-1,030	+0% $-947	+5% $-864	+10% $-781
Rate	-1.0pp $-757	-0.5pp $-851	base $-947	+0.5pp $-1,044	+1.0pp $-1,144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,119
• Closing costs: $11,294
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4032 Eagle Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	100d	1	1.34mi
1968 Marble Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,350	$1.15	111d	1	1.36mi
2015 Angel Way Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,671	$1.19	118d	1	1.47mi
4009 Freedom St Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,800	$1.27	140d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $251,990 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $251,990 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $251,990 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $251,990 Active 221 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $251,990 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $251,990 Active 219 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $251,990 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $251,990 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $251,990 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $251,990 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $251,990 Active 214 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $251,990 Active 213 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $251,990 Active 212 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $251,990 Active 211 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $251,990 Active 205 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $251,990 Active 204 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $251,990 Active 202 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $251,990 Active 200 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $251,990 Active 198 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $251,990 Active 197 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $251,990 Active 196 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $251,990 Active 194 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $251,990 Active 193 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $251,990 Active 192 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $251,990 Active 191 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $251,990 Active 190 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $251,990 Active 189 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $251,990 Active 188 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $251,990 Active 187 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $251,990 Active 186 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $251,990 Active 185 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $251,990 Active 184 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $251,990 Active 183 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    pricedays on market $251,990 Active 182 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $260,990 Active 181 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $260,990 Active 180 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $260,990 Active 179 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $260,990 Active 178 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $260,990 Active 177 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $260,990 Active 175 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    price $260,990 Active 174 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $251,990 Active 174 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $251,990 Active 173 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $251,990 Active 172 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $251,990 Active 169 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $251,990 Active 168 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $251,990 Active 167 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $251,990 Active 166 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $251,990 Active 164 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $251,990 Active 162 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,088
• − Property taxes: −$5,647
• − Insurance: −$1,882
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − Depreciation: −$10,952
• Taxable loss: −$18,453
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,429
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern townhouse is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs needed and offers high ROI updates such as painting the exterior and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Johnson El C TX #686/4,322 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Warren Middle D+ TX #443/1,662 Nat'l #4,335/14,009 High Forney H S C+ TX #258/1,632 Nat'l #3,443/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

---

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $251,990 Zillow