470 N Civic Dr #105

Walnut Creek, CA 94596

$219,899D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 517 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Pending · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,389/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$411
• HOA: −$837
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-513/mo
• Annual: $-6,161/yr
• Cap rate: 3.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.01%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-513 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (41.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (41.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#113 in CA, #4,005 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Acalanes Union High (suburban): math 73% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #21 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Tice Creek (424 students, 4% FRL); Walnut Creek Intermediate (985 students, 13% FRL); Las Lomas High (math 66% / reading 83%, grade B+, #78 of 1,170 statewide, top 7%, 1,571 students, 12% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask is 7896% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.1% in Walnut Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?