16362 Pecan View Dr

Robertsdale, AL 36551

$128,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,864 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,927/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $638/mo
• Annual: $7,654/yr
• Cap rate: 12.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.36%
• DSCR: 1.95
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $35,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#371 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loxley Elementary School (math 22% / reading 49%, grade F, #288 of 627 statewide, top 46%, 482 students, 65% FRL); Central Baldwin Middle School (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #101 of 257 statewide, top 40%, 757 students, 74% FRL); Baldwin County High School (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #140 of 305 statewide, top 46%, 1,039 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 38% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $128k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.4% in Robertsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.