16362 Pecan View Dr · Robertsdale, AL 36551

$128,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1998 0.27 ac lot $69/sqft · 19% above area Est $98k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY! CLEAN. !!! FRESHLY PAINTED THROUGHOUT!. Very convenient location, large rooms w/ lots of storage. established yard, Metal Roof, Great 19x17 Screened rear porch. 12x12 storage/shop w/ power. Al Right of Redemption does apply. Sellers are Lic AL RE brokers and agent. New electric range and additional master bath mirrors to be installed second week in January.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 58 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community features: Other; No transfer fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Served by Loxley utilities
• Home design: Mobile home; One story; Resale condition; Less than 1 acre lot; Whole/Full ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Other foundation; Built area reported as 1,688 square feet
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Covered front porch; No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Breakfast area / living-dining combo
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Wood-burning fireplace in the living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $124k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.4% in Robertsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#371 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loxley Elementary School (math 22% / reading 49%, grade F, #288 of 627 statewide, top 46%, 482 students, 65% FRL); Central Baldwin Middle School (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #101 of 257 statewide, top 40%, 757 students, 74% FRL); Baldwin County High School (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #140 of 305 statewide, top 46%, 1,039 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 38% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $128k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,160 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.36%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,782
• List price: $128,000
• Delta: 30.90%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24504 Pecan Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,734 (-7%)	7mo	$48,000	$28	80
16066 Pecan View Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+3%)	12mo	$95,900	$50	72
24098 Gemstone Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,742 (-6%)	14mo	$138,000	$79	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $19,910
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $69,764
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36551

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$160 /mo · $1,920/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,120

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $726	-5% $682	+0% $638	+5% $594	+10% $549
Rent	-10% $486	-5% $562	+0% $638	+5% $714	+10% $790
Rate	-1.0pp $702	-0.5pp $670	base $638	+0.5pp $605	+1.0pp $571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24249 Gemstone Dr Loxley, AL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,795	$1.35	45d	1	0.31mi
24304 Raynagua Blvd Loxley, AL	3.0	2.0	1743	$2,045	$1.17	15d	1	0.48mi
25472 Overlook Dr Loxley, AL	4.0	4.0	1955	$2,000	$1.02	45d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $128,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $128,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $128,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $128,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $128,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $128,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $128,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,000 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $128,000 Active 36 DOM
19. 2026-05-08
    price $138,000 53-char remark
20. 2026-04-24
    listed $149,900 Active 53-char remark
21. 2015-03-31
    soldstatus $70,000 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! CLEAN. !!! FRESHLY PAINTED THROUGHOUT!. Very convenient location, large rooms w/ lots of storage. established yard, Metal Roof, Great 19x17 Screened rear porch. 12x12 storage/shop w/ power. Al Right of Redemption does apply. Sellers are Lic AL RE brokers and agent. New electric range and additional master bath mirrors to be installed second week in January.

22. 2015-01-02
    listed $68,500 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! CLEAN. !!! FRESHLY PAINTED THROUGHOUT!. Very convenient location, large rooms w/ lots of storage. established yard, Metal Roof, Great 19x17 Screened rear porch. 12x12 storage/shop w/ power. Al Right of Redemption does apply. Sellers are Lic AL RE brokers and agent. New electric range and additional master bath mirrors to be installed second week in January.

23. 2005-11-10
    soldstatus $91,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$1,920
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable income: $5,971
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,433
• After-tax cash flow: $6,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Robertsdale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #21424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16,095
• Population (ZIP): 12,915

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.18%
• Current HPI: 291.8584
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+39.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $128,000 BCAR
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $138,000 BCAR
• 2026-04-24 Listed $149,900 BCAR
• 2015-03-31 Sold (MLS) $70,000 BCAR
• 2015-01-02 Listed $68,500 BCAR
• 2005-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $91,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $216 · +64.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.