2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,012 sqft ·
Built 1976
· Townhouse
· Active
· 15 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,972/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$229
HOA
−$90
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$414
Net cashflow
$269/mo
Annual
$3,234/yr
Cap rate
8.04%
Cash-on-cash
6.24%
DSCR
1.28
1% rule
1.07%
Cash to close
$51,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $185k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#516 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Lenape Regional High School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #136 of 472 in NJ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask is 61% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $115k; list at $185k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.2% in Leisuretowne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YN1Z47EB42Y4WH
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29