1653 Oro Grande Dr Unit AA34

Keystone, CO 80435

$78,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · Built 1982 · Condo · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,914/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$233
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $1,371/mo
• Annual: $16,452/yr
• Cap rate: 27.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.33%
• DSCR: 4.35
• 1% rule: 3.74%
• Cash to close: $21,840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $78k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#412 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Summit School District No. RE-1 (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #35 of 86 in CO (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dillon Valley Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #606 of 966 statewide, top 65%, 419 students, 51% FRL); Summit Middle School (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #126 of 270 statewide, top 46%, 764 students, 38% FRL); Summit High School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #115 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,132 students, 29% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 409 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 308 units permitted in Summit County in 2024 (123 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Summit County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 27.4% vs local median 0.4% in Keystone — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.