1653 Oro Grande Dr Unit AA34 · Keystone, CO 80435

$78,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · Condo public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1982 $233/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy six weeks each year in this beautifully updated top-floor condominium, featuring exceptional pride of ownership and stunning ski area/Gore Range views over protected wetlands. This unique partnership opportunity offers a flexible annual usage calendar, allowing owners to select their preferred weeks each year with the added convenience of easily trading time when needed. Second bedroom now featuring a queen size bunk bed that can sleep up to 4 people. Located in the heart of Keystone Resort, Frostfire places mountain adventure right outside your door - just steps from the Mountain House Base Area and world-class skiing. Directly adjacent to Summit County's extensive bike path system that gets you to the shores of Lake Dillon in 15 minutes. This condo has it all and is perfect for year-round biking, hiking, and outdoor recreation. Partnership dues are paid semi-annually and cover virtually everything, including HOA dues, utilities, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, supplies, and partnership management - offering effortless ownership and worry-free mountain living.

Key facts

• Ski area views
• Protected wetlands
• $233 HOA

Tags

• TOP-FLOOR CONDOMINIUM
• SKI AREA VIEWS
• PROTECTED WETLANDS
• HEART OF KEYSTONE RESORT
• MOUNTAIN HOUSE BASE AREA
• ADJACENT TO BIKE PATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Frostfire (professionally managed); Semi-annual association fee of $1,400 (total annual $2,800); Community spa/hot tub; Association covers cable TV, electricity, gas, heat, insurance, internet, grounds and structure maintenance, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: 2 off-street parking spaces (total 2)
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas available and connected; Wired internet access available; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential low-rise (1-3 stories); One level; South-facing; Attached unit with 2+ common walls; Individually owned
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Deck; Paved road access; Year-round road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (1 full, 1 three-quarter) on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Radiant heating
• Interior features: Furnished; Balcony; Deck; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.4% vs local median 0.4% in Keystone — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#412 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Summit School District No. RE-1 (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #35 of 86 in CO (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dillon Valley Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #606 of 966 statewide, top 65%, 419 students, 51% FRL); Summit Middle School (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #126 of 270 statewide, top 46%, 764 students, 38% FRL); Summit High School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #115 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,132 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 409 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 308 units permitted in Summit County in 2024 (123 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Summit County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,660 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.33%
• DSCR: 4.35
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $74,966
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.19×
• Total profit: $178,876
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80435

• Active inventory: 409
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,914 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,080/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$233
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $1,371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,179

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
433 Wild Irishman Rd Dillon, CO	2.0	2.0	872	$3,500	$4.01	2d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $233 · $2,796/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $78,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $78,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $78,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $78,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $78,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $78,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $78,000 Active 1091-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1091 chars)

    Enjoy six weeks each year in this beautifully updated top-floor condominium, featuring exceptional pride of ownership and stunning ski area/Gore Range views over protected wetlands. This unique partnership opportunity offers a flexible annual usage calendar, allowing owners to select their preferred weeks each year with the added convenience of easily trading time when needed. Second bedroom now featuring a queen size bunk bed that can sleep up to 4 people. Located in the heart of Keystone Resort, Frostfire places mountain adventure right outside your door - just steps from the Mountain House Base Area and world-class skiing. Directly adjacent to Summit County's extensive bike path system that gets you to the shores of Lake Dillon in 15 minutes. This condo has it all and is perfect for year-round biking, hiking, and outdoor recreation. Partnership dues are paid semi-annually and cover virtually everything, including HOA dues, utilities, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, supplies, and partnership management - offering effortless ownership and worry-free mountain living.

17. 2026-05-18
    listed $78,000 Active 1091-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1091 chars)

    Enjoy six weeks each year in this beautifully updated top-floor condominium, featuring exceptional pride of ownership and stunning ski area/Gore Range views over protected wetlands. This unique partnership opportunity offers a flexible annual usage calendar, allowing owners to select their preferred weeks each year with the added convenience of easily trading time when needed. Second bedroom now featuring a queen size bunk bed that can sleep up to 4 people. Located in the heart of Keystone Resort, Frostfire places mountain adventure right outside your door - just steps from the Mountain House Base Area and world-class skiing. Directly adjacent to Summit County's extensive bike path system that gets you to the shores of Lake Dillon in 15 minutes. This condo has it all and is perfect for year-round biking, hiking, and outdoor recreation. Partnership dues are paid semi-annually and cover virtually everything, including HOA dues, utilities, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, supplies, and partnership management - offering effortless ownership and worry-free mountain living.

18. 2026-05-15
    listed $78,000 Active 1109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1109 chars)

    Enjoy six weeks each year in this beautifully updated top-floor condominium, featuring exceptional pride of ownership and stunning ski area/Gore Range views over protected wetlands. This unique partnership opportunity offers a flexible annual usage calendar, allowing owners to select their preferred weeks each year with the added convenience of easily trading time when needed. Second bedroom now featuring a queen size bunk bed that can sleep up to 4 people. Located in the heart of Keystone Resort, Frostfire places mountain adventure right outside your door — just steps from the Mountain House Base Area and world-class skiing. Directly adjacent to Summit County’s extensive bike path system that gets you to the shores of Lake Dillon in 15 minutes. This condo has it all and is perfect for year-round biking, hiking, and outdoor recreation. Partnership dues are paid semi-annually and cover virtually everything, including HOA dues, utilities, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, supplies, and partnership management — offering effortless ownership and worry-free mountain living.

19. 2025-01-31
    soldstatus $77,500 Closed
20. 2025-01-14
    status Pending
21. 2024-12-16
    listed $79,900 Active
22. 2024-09-06
    soldstatus $78,000 Closed
23. 2024-07-31
    status Pending
24. 2024-05-03
    listed $78,000 Active
25. 1998-06-01
    soldstatus $227,500
26. 1992-03-04
    soldstatus $147,000
27. 1990-05-01
    soldstatus $2,726,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,080 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,080 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 12 d/yr ≥70°F today · 34 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$3,080
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,798
• − Management: −$2,798
• − HOA: −$2,796
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $16,471
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,953
• After-tax cash flow: $12,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Summit School District No. RE-1
• NCES district ID: 0806810
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,591
• Composite: 31.97/100
• National rank: #5840
• State rank: #35 of 86 in CO

Livability — Keystone

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #25767

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime A- Employment B- Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keystone, CO
• County: Summit County · 31,352 people
• City population: 8,715
• Metro: Breckenridge, CO
• Population (ZIP): 8,715
• Household income: $97,463
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 302.0

Population outlook (Summit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,421 people
• By 2030: 37,983 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 42,597 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 46,695 · +31.8%
• By 2075: 55,288 · +56.1%
• By 2100: 61,033 · +72.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 20% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Summit

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+37.2) · D 67.0% · R 29.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: 33.0pp · 2024: 37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+37.2 2020: D+39.5 2016: D+27.6 2012: D+24.4 2008: D+33.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -237.44%
• Current HPI: 342.4123
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Breckenridge, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-97.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $78,000 IRES
• 2026-05-18 Listed $78,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $78,000 SAR
• 2025-01-31 Sold (MLS) $77,500 SAR
• 2025-01-14 Pending — SAR
• 2024-12-16 Listed $79,900 SAR
• 2024-09-06 Sold (MLS) $78,000 SAR
• 2024-07-31 Pending — SAR
• 2024-05-03 Listed $78,000 SAR
• 1998-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $227,500 Public Records
• 1992-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records
• 1990-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $2,726,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,080 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.