12 Kline St

Lorenz Park, NY 12534

$429,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,688 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,841/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax + insurance: −$668
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $-673/mo
• Annual: $-8,072/yr
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.72%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $120,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $429k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-673 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (27.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (33.8% below list).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $284k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#498 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery C Smith Elementary School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,409 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 723 students, 65% FRL); Hudson Junior High School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #573 of 729 statewide, top 79%, 384 students, 63% FRL); Hudson High School (math 82% / reading 84%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 454 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $429k implies a 361% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• At $2,841/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1083% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.