12 Kline St · Lorenz Park, NY 12534

$429,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,688 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1972 8,276 sqft lot Est $398k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home! This beautiful two-story Colonial, built in 1972, boasts over 2,300 square feet of living space and is situated in a tranquil residential neighborhood. Location is key here, as this home is situated just a short stroll away from schools, grocery stores, pharmacies, restaurants, and a variety of shopping options, where everything you need is right at your fingertips. As you approach, you'll be greeted by a lovely covered front porch, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or relaxing in the evening. Step inside to find a formal living room that exudes warmth and elegance, along with a spacious formal dining room ideal for hosting family gatherings. The rooms are

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Large deck
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• CHERRY FLOORING
• GAS FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Driveway; Garage faces front
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single family residence; House with two levels; Entry level not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Concrete perimeter and slab foundation; Built year not specified
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Back yard fencing; Shed(s); Level lot; Paved road access; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Freezer; Other kitchen appliance(s)
• Bedrooms: Total of 10 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for cooling; Baseboard and electric heating; Wood stove
• Interior features: Granite counters; Two fireplaces (one gas, one wood burning stove) with locations in family room and recreation room; Partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-673 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (27.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (33.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#498 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery C Smith Elementary School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,409 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 723 students, 65% FRL); Hudson Junior High School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #573 of 729 statewide, top 79%, 384 students, 63% FRL); Hudson High School (math 82% / reading 84%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 454 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,841/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1083% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $429k implies a 361% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $284,122 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.72%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $398,368
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Carole Ln	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,781 (+6%)	6mo	$379,500	$213	83
16 Oakwood Blvd	0.12mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,570 (-7%)	8mo	$350,000	$223	67
13 James St	0.49mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,702 (+1%)	2mo	$402,500	$236	65
55-59 Fairview Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,803 (+7%)	6mo	$450,000	$250	64
53 James Street St	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,825 (+8%)	6mo	$396,718	$217	59
12 Fabiano Blvd	0.45mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,660 (-2%)	10mo	$315,000	$190	59
28 Janis St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,836 (+9%)	3mo	$390,000	$212	54
65 Green Street St	0.64mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,700 (+1%)	10mo	$442,500	$260	51
19 Aitken Avenue Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,917 (+14%)	4mo	$535,000	$279	49
517 - 519 Washington St	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,864 (+10%)	10mo	$787,500	$422	40
517-519 Washington St	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,864 (+10%)	10mo	$787,500	$422	40
84 Harry Howard Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,500 (-11%)	12mo	$325,000	$217	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $205,829
• Equity at exit: $386,477

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $677,051
• Equity at exit: $833,453

Cash invested: $120,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12534

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,841 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax from tax record: −$489 /mo · $5,865/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $-673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,693

Max offer price $310,165

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-430	-5% $-551	+0% $-673	+5% $-794	+10% $-916
Rent	-10% $-897	-5% $-785	+0% $-673	+5% $-560	+10% $-448
Rate	-1.0pp $-457	-0.5pp $-564	base $-673	+0.5pp $-784	+1.0pp $-897

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,250
• Closing costs: $12,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
76 N 7th St Hudson, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	837	$3,600	$4.30	15d	47	0.74mi
823-825 Columbia St Unit 3 Hudson, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	45d	1	0.76mi
437 State St Hudson, NY	3.0	3.0	1800	$8,000	$4.44	45d	1	0.90mi
442 Columbia St Hudson, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,850	$1.68	45d	1	0.94mi
438 Warren St Hudson, NY	2.0	1.5	1181	$2,850	$2.41	45d	1	0.99mi
227 Warren St Unit 3 Hudson, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,600	$1.86	25d	1	1.21mi
210 Allen St Hudson, NY	2.0	1.0	1400	$2,900	$2.07	25d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $429,000 Pending 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $429,000 Active Under Contract 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $429,000 Active Under Contract 130 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $429,000 Active Under Contract 129 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $429,000 Active Under Contract 128 DOM
6. 2026-04-20
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-03-21
   price $429,000
8. 2026-01-22
   listed $449,000 Active
9. 2000-04-12
   soldstatus $93,000
10. 1993-09-01
    soldstatus $113,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,865 · $489/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,558 · $546/mo
• Expected delta: +$692/yr (+$58/mo · 11.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,031
• − Property taxes: −$5,865
• − Insurance: −$2,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,728
• − Management: −$2,728
• − Depreciation: −$12,480
• Taxable loss: −$15,882
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,812
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson City School District
• NCES district ID: 3614940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,663
• Composite: 36.03/100
• National rank: #4779
• State rank: #494 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lorenz Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #498
• US rank: #8738

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lorenz Park, NY
• County: Columbia County · 17,176 people
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,176
• Household income: $72,741
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1083.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.98%
• Current HPI: 490.0412
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+279.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $429,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $449,000 HVCRMLS
• 2000-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 1993-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,865 · +31.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.