8741 Cottage Creek Dr

Fort Worth, TX 76123

$137,850B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 760 sqft · Built 2023 · Townhouse · Active · 239 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,929/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$723
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $321/mo
• Annual: $3,858/yr
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.99%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $38,598

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $138k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: J A Hargrave El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 420 students, 82% FRL); Mary Harris El (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 389 students, 87% FRL); North Crowley H S (math 20% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,920 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 52% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 582 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 56d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.0% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.