1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,320 sqft ·
Built 1958
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 625 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$800/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$288
Tax + insurance
−$195
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$168
Net cashflow
$149/mo
Annual
$1,787/yr
Cap rate
9.54%
Cash-on-cash
11.61%
DSCR
1.52
1% rule
1.45%
Cash to close
$15,400
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($800 rent vs $55k).
It's been on market 625 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#352 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Hardin-Jefferson ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #135 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Sour Lake El (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 767 students, 42% FRL); Henderson Middle (math 59% / reading 47%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 617 students, 41% FRL); Hardin-Jefferson H S (math 68% / reading 67%, grade B, #158 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 749 students, 38% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.8% in Sour Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 625 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YNM9EF51R5YSWG
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29