501 N Walnut St

Fair Play, MO 65649

$69,900B+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 1962 · Other · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $515/mo
• Annual: $6,177/yr
• Cap rate: 15.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.56%
• DSCR: 2.40
• 1% rule: 1.72%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#859 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Fair Play R-II (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #266 of 535 in MO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.