501 N Walnut St · Fair Play, MO 65649

$69,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Other public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1962 0.50 ac lot $51/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Fair Play, this 3-bed, 2-bath home offers 1,300 sq ft of potential on a spacious corner lot. The property features a brand-new roof replaced just last year, providing peace of mind for years to come. Exterior highlights include a functional carport and a low-maintenance crawlspace foundation. Inside, you'll find a versatile layout ready for your creative vision and custom updates. Bring your tools and design ideas to capitalize on this solid opportunity in a quiet Missouri community.

Key facts

• Functional carport
• Versatile layout
• Brand-new roof

Tags

• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• FUNCTIONAL CARPORT
• VERSATILE LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#859 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Fair Play R-II (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #266 of 535 in MO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.56%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,518
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -58.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $44,507
• Equity at exit: $34,951

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $108,548
• Equity at exit: $56,779

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65649

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $501/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $554

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $554	-5% $535	+0% $515	+5% $495	+10% $475
Rent	-10% $420	-5% $467	+0% $515	+5% $562	+10% $610
Rate	-1.0pp $550	-0.5pp $533	base $515	+0.5pp $497	+1.0pp $478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,900 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $79,900 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Located in Fair Play, this 3-bed, 2-bath home offers 1,300 sq ft of potential on a spacious corner lot. The property features a brand-new roof replaced just last year, providing peace of mind for years to come. Exterior highlights include a functional carport and a low-maintenance crawlspace foundation. Inside, you'll find a versatile layout ready for your creative vision and custom updates. Bring your tools and design ideas to capitalize on this solid opportunity in a quiet Missouri community.

16. 2026-04-10
    listed $84,900 Active 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Located in Fair Play, this 3-bed, 2-bath home offers 1,300 sq ft of potential on a spacious corner lot. The property features a brand-new roof replaced just last year, providing peace of mind for years to come. Exterior highlights include a functional carport and a low-maintenance crawlspace foundation. Inside, you'll find a versatile layout ready for your creative vision and custom updates. Bring your tools and design ideas to capitalize on this solid opportunity in a quiet Missouri community.

17. 2018-09-18
    soldstatus
18. 2015-12-04
    soldstatus 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bath home on a large lot. Living room with hardwood floors, 1 car carport, ramp leading into home, and very close to the School.

19. 2014-07-16
    listed $19,900 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bath home on a large lot. Living room with hardwood floors, 1 car carport, ramp leading into home, and very close to the School.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $501 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $678 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$177/yr (+$15/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$501
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $5,350
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,284
• After-tax cash flow: $4,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fair Play R-II
• NCES district ID: 2911730
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $37,331
• Composite: 37.67/100
• National rank: #8787
• State rank: #266 of 535 in MO

Livability — Fair Play

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #24972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fair Play, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,152

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,229 people
• By 2030: 31,227 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 31,104 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 30,553 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 29,332 · -6.1%
• By 2100: 26,387 · -15.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.6% · R 80.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -32.1pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.5 2016: R+56.9 2012: R+43.2 2008: R+32.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Current HPI: 266.2512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+301.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $84,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-04 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2014-07-16 Listed $19,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $501 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.