4222 Kay Ln #7

Lemay, MO 63123

$99,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Built 1975 · Condo · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$350
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-42/mo
• Annual: $-505/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-505/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $92k (7.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#213 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Bayless (suburban): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #206 of 324 in MO (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bayless Elementary (math 31% / reading 38%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 814 students, 48% FRL); Bayless Senior High (math 8% / reading 42%, grade F, #436 of 521 statewide, top 85%, 566 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $99k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?