4222 Kay Ln #7 · Lemay, MO 63123

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Condo public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1975 $350/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 2nd floor garden style condo located in a fantastic south county location. This condo is tucked in the back of the condo complex and offers a large living room with sliding door leading to the lovely deck. Both bedrooms are nicely sized. The condo also offers an eating area just off the galley kitchen.

Key facts

• Private storage room
• In-ground pool
• Full kitchen

Tags

• FULL KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• BALCONY
• PRIVATE STORAGE ROOM
• IN-GROUND POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered; Seller may consider concessions
• HOA & community: HOA: Blackwood Condo Association; Monthly association fee of $350; HOA covers pool maintenance, trash, and water; Approximately 70 units in the community

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (single phase)
• Home design: Condominium; One level
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Landscaped grounds; Private community pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-505/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $92k (7.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#213 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Bayless (suburban): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #206 of 324 in MO (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bayless Elementary (math 31% / reading 38%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 814 students, 48% FRL); Bayless Senior High (math 8% / reading 42%, grade F, #436 of 521 statewide, top 85%, 566 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $99k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,559 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-18,505
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-18,676
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63123

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,256

Max offer price $91,559

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4236 Fatima Dr Apt 4 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	800	$925	$1.16	10d	1	0.13mi
4831 Oldenburg Ave Affton, MO	2.0	1.0	775	$1,110	$1.43	12d	1	1.06mi
1908 Via Veneto Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,021	$1.28	2d	3	1.06mi
709 Dammert Ave Unit Labs St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	800	$1,100	$1.38	43d	1	1.10mi
3945 Crosby Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,083	$1.89	1d	1	1.18mi
304 Bayless Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,950	$1.77	1d	1	1.20mi
9551 Cantwell Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1090	$1,750	$1.61	14d	1	1.25mi
8511 Idaho Ave Unit 1st Floor St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	12d	1	1.28mi
207 Waller Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	23d	1	1.28mi
4101 Germania Ave Apt 1A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	800	$925	$1.16	14d	1	1.29mi
4117 Germania St Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$925	$1.23	43d	1	1.29mi
7500 Morganford Rd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$925	$1.23	43d	1	1.31mi
7201-7205 Gravois Rd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	10d	7	1.32mi
152 W Etta Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$1,274	$1.36	7d	1	1.32mi
7428 Morganford Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	969	$1,500	$1.55	43d	1	1.37mi
9517 Lydell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,800	$1.69	10d	1	1.38mi
9311 Sterling Pl Unit 9313 Affton, MO	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	23d	1	1.38mi
7912 Olde English Rd St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	2d	2	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $99,000 Pending 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-05-26
    listed $99,000 Active
12. 2026-05-26
    historical $99,000
13. 2021-01-12
    soldstatus $51,000
14. 2020-12-30
    soldstatus Closed 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 2nd floor garden style condo located in a fantastic south county location. This condo is tucked in the back of the condo complex and offers a large living room with sliding door leading to the lovely deck. Both bedrooms are nicely sized. The condo also offers an eating area just off the galley kitchen.

15. 2020-12-07
    status Pending 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 2nd floor garden style condo located in a fantastic south county location. This condo is tucked in the back of the condo complex and offers a large living room with sliding door leading to the lovely deck. Both bedrooms are nicely sized. The condo also offers an eating area just off the galley kitchen.

16. 2020-12-04
    listed $48,750 Active 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 2nd floor garden style condo located in a fantastic south county location. This condo is tucked in the back of the condo complex and offers a large living room with sliding door leading to the lovely deck. Both bedrooms are nicely sized. The condo also offers an eating area just off the galley kitchen.

17. 1982-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$1,979
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$475
• After-tax cash flow: $-30/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bayless
• NCES district ID: 2904500
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $49,378
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #6293
• State rank: #206 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lemay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #10652

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lemay, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 33,294
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 49,077
• Household income: $77,055
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 753.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: American 5% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.90%
• Current HPI: 220.258
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.01%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+103.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $99,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Coming Soon $99,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-30 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-07 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-04 Listed $48,750 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1982-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $982 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.