3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,356 sqft ·
Built 1979
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,620/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$917
Tax + insurance
−$265
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$340
Net cashflow
$97/mo
Annual
$1,169/yr
Cap rate
7.42%
Cash-on-cash
4.02%
DSCR
1.18
1% rule
0.93%
Cash to close
$48,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (7.4% below list).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $162k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#289 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Kermit Johnson School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #442 of 627 statewide, top 72%, 606 students, 62% FRL); Pinson Valley High School (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #246 of 305 statewide, top 81%, 1,029 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 49% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.3% in Pinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YPDKKM47MT0AYR
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29