568 Orbit Dr

Canyon Lake, TX 78133-3453

$120,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Pending · 698 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,634/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $462/mo
• Annual: $5,539/yr
• Cap rate: 10.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.49%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 698 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 698 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.