568 Orbit Dr · Canyon Lake, TX 78133-3453

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 698 Days on market

Built 1984 7,622 sqft lot $125/sqft · 52% below area ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled 3/2 property ready for a new owner! Split floor plan with an open concept. Currently has a long term tenant . This property is located in an unrestricted neighborhood close to shopping, recreational activities, schools and NB. All showings must be set with the listing agent.

Key facts

• 7,622 sq ft lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 698 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $120,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$249,056) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 698 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 698 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.49%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,056
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -51.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $43,882
• Equity at exit: $53,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $115,064
• Equity at exit: $83,154

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133-3453

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,634 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $545	-5% $503	+0% $462	+5% $420	+10% $379
Rent	-10% $333	-5% $397	+0% $462	+5% $526	+10% $591
Rate	-1.0pp $522	-0.5pp $492	base $462	+0.5pp $431	+1.0pp $399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1415 Glenn Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	1.0	802	$1,550	$1.93	45d	1	0.09mi
668 Creekside Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,225	$1.25	45d	1	1.11mi
1314 Stagecoach Dr Unit 1564857P Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	1.0	839	$3,309	$3.94	3d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-24
   price $120,000 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Remodeled 3/2 property ready for a new owner! Split floor plan with an open concept. Currently has a long term tenant . This property is located in an unrestricted neighborhood close to shopping, recreational activities, schools and NB. All showings must be set with the listing agent.

2. 2026-04-23
   status Back on Market 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Remodeled 3/2 property ready for a new owner! Split floor plan with an open concept. Currently has a long term tenant . This property is located in an unrestricted neighborhood close to shopping, recreational activities, schools and NB. All showings must be set with the listing agent.

3. 2025-05-30
   historical 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Remodeled 3/2 property ready for a new owner! Split floor plan with an open concept. Currently has a long term tenant . This property is located in an unrestricted neighborhood close to shopping, recreational activities, schools and NB. All showings must be set with the listing agent.

4. 2025-01-28
   price $139,000 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Remodeled 3/2 property ready for a new owner! Split floor plan with an open concept. Currently has a long term tenant . This property is located in an unrestricted neighborhood close to shopping, recreational activities, schools and NB. All showings must be set with the listing agent.

5. 2024-10-08
   price $159,000 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Remodeled 3/2 property ready for a new owner! Split floor plan with an open concept. Currently has a long term tenant . This property is located in an unrestricted neighborhood close to shopping, recreational activities, schools and NB. All showings must be set with the listing agent.

6. 2024-07-19
   status Back on Market 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Remodeled 3/2 property ready for a new owner! Split floor plan with an open concept. Currently has a long term tenant . This property is located in an unrestricted neighborhood close to shopping, recreational activities, schools and NB. All showings must be set with the listing agent.

7. 2024-07-18
   historical
8. 2024-06-30
   historical 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Remodeled 3/2 property ready for a new owner! Split floor plan with an open concept. Currently has a long term tenant . This property is located in an unrestricted neighborhood close to shopping, recreational activities, schools and NB. All showings must be set with the listing agent.

9. 2024-06-01
   status Back on Market 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Remodeled 3/2 property ready for a new owner! Split floor plan with an open concept. Currently has a long term tenant . This property is located in an unrestricted neighborhood close to shopping, recreational activities, schools and NB. All showings must be set with the listing agent.

10. 2024-05-31
    historical 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Remodeled 3/2 property ready for a new owner! Split floor plan with an open concept. Currently has a long term tenant . This property is located in an unrestricted neighborhood close to shopping, recreational activities, schools and NB. All showings must be set with the listing agent.

11. 2024-02-08
    listed $190,000 Active
12. 2023-07-18
    listed $190,000 New 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Remodeled 3/2 property ready for a new owner! Split floor plan with an open concept. Currently has a long term tenant . This property is located in an unrestricted neighborhood close to shopping, recreational activities, schools and NB. All showings must be set with the listing agent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,569
• − Management: −$1,569
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,859
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$926
• After-tax cash flow: $4,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-36.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $120,000 LERA
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-05-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $139,000 LERA
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $159,000 LERA
• 2024-07-19 Relisted — LERA
• 2024-07-18 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-06-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-06-01 Relisted — LERA
• 2024-05-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-02-08 Listed $190,000 CTXMLS
• 2023-07-18 Listed $190,000 LERA

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $165 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.