1279 Thornbird Trl

Sealy, TX 77474

$249,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,054/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$527
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-272/mo
• Annual: $-3,269/yr
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.67%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (17.8% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#342 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sealy ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #405 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Selman El (math 31% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 639 students, 71% FRL); Sealy J H (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 664 students, 63% FRL); Sealy H S (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 903 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 460 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 108d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 410 units permitted in Austin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Austin County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Sealy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.