1279 Thornbird Trl · Sealy, TX 77474

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 7,431 sqft lot $149/sqft · 8% below area Est $273k · 8% under $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2023. Nestled in fast-growing Austin Co, this well-kept 1-story in Westward Pointe is 4BED/2BA, & a bright open-concept layout designed for everyday living. Granite counters throughout, Kitchen island w/breakfast bar, soft-close cabinets, stainless appliances, upgraded faucet, & generous pantry, open to living/dining. Since purchase, owners added thoughtful upgrades to enhance value & enjoyment, including 5 ceiling fans, modern LED dining light fixture, custom paint accents add interest, xtra LED garage lights & wall organization panels, 32SF of xtra attic flooring, full sprinklers, professionally landscaped, stained fencing, & electrical outlet for generator. Extended covered patio w/retractable shades & storm door w/built-in pet door. No back neighbors. Fridge , washer, dryer, & rain barrel stay. Primary suite offers double sinks & walk-in closet, & 3 xtra beds meet life's demands. Community amenities include a pool, park, playground, pond, jogging path, and trails.

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Covered patio
• Retractable shades

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• RETRACTABLE SHADES
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GRANITE TOPPED ISLAND
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.4% in Sealy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#342 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sealy ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #405 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Selman El (math 31% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 639 students, 71% FRL); Sealy J H (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 664 students, 63% FRL); Sealy H S (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 903 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 438 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 410 units permitted in Austin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Austin County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $211,214 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.76%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,980
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -5.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2314 Perdido Bay Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-2%)	2mo	$274,990	$166	82
1318 Bison View Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,809 (+8%)	2mo	$280,000	$155	82
2303 Perdido Bay Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-2%)	2mo	$274,990	$166	82
1310 Bison View Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-5%)	2mo	$279,999	$176	80
1237 Waterside Trce	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,817 (+8%)	2mo	$279,990	$154	71
2603 Foxgrove Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,476 (-12%)	3mo	$254,990	$173	63
2044 Woodlark Way	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-5%)	2mo	$265,000	$166	61
2311 Perdido Bay Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,476 (-12%)	3mo	$254,990	$173	60
2305 Perdido Bay Ln	0.31mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+12%)	3mo	$269,990	$143	58
2607 Foxgrove Ln	0.34mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+12%)	2mo	$279,990	$149	57
2703 Alamonte Dr	0.45mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+12%)	1mo	$264,990	$141	53
2701 Alamonte Dr	0.46mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+12%)	1mo	$264,990	$141	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-54,307
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-64,699
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $278,240 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 74 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77474

• Active inventory: 438
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,070/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,399

Max offer price $211,214

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-78	-5% $-148	+0% $-219	+5% $-290	+10% $-360
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-303	+0% $-219	+5% $-135	+10% $-51
Rate	-1.0pp $-93	-0.5pp $-155	base $-219	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Morning Dove Trl Sealy, TX	4.0	2.0	1845	$2,375	$1.29	68d	1	1.02mi
118 White Wing Ln Sealy, TX	3.0	2.0	2007	$1,846	$0.92	62d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail $58/mo · $696/yr

• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $249,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-09-22
   pricedays on marketlisting id $249,900 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-09-11
   days on market $259,000 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-09-05
   days on market $259,000 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-09-04
   days on market $259,000 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-09-02
   days on market $259,000 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-08-31
   days on market $259,000 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-08-29
    days on market $259,000 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-08-28
    days on market $259,000 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-08-27
    days on market $259,000 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-08-25
    days on market $259,000 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-08-24
    days on market $259,000 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-08-23
    days on market $259,000 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-08-22
    days on market $259,000 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-08-21
    days on market $259,000 Active 150 DOM
18. 2026-08-20
    days on market $259,000 Active 149 DOM
19. 2026-08-19
    days on market $259,000 Active 148 DOM
20. 2026-08-18
    days on market $259,000 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-08-17
    days on market $259,000 Active 146 DOM
22. 2026-08-16
    days on market $259,000 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-08-15
    days on market $259,000 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-08-14
    days on market $259,000 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-08-13
    pricedays on market $259,000 Active 142 DOM
26. 2026-08-12
    days on market $269,500 Active 141 DOM
27. 2026-08-11
    days on market $269,500 Active 140 DOM
28. 2026-08-10
    days on market $269,500 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-08-09
    days on market $269,500 Active 138 DOM
30. 2026-08-08
    days on market $269,500 Active 137 DOM
31. 2026-08-06
    days on market $269,500 Active 135 DOM
32. 2026-08-05
    days on market $269,500 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-08-04
    days on market $269,500 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-08-03
    days on market $269,500 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-07-31
    days on market $269,500 Active 129 DOM
36. 2026-07-30
    days on market $269,500 Active 127 DOM
37. 2026-07-28
    days on market $269,500 Active 126 DOM
38. 2026-07-26
    days on market $269,500 Active 124 DOM
39. 2026-07-24
    days on market $269,500 Active 122 DOM
40. 2026-07-23
    days on market $269,500 Active 121 DOM
41. 2026-07-22
    days on market $269,500 Active 120 DOM
42. 2026-07-21
    days on market $269,500 Active 119 DOM
43. 2026-07-20
    days on market $269,500 Active 118 DOM
44. 2026-07-18
    days on market $269,500 Active 116 DOM
45. 2026-07-18
    days on market $269,500 Active 115 DOM
46. 2026-07-16
    days on market $269,500 Active 114 DOM
47. 2026-07-15
    days on market $269,500 Active 113 DOM
48. 2026-07-14
    days on market $269,500 Active 112 DOM
49. 2026-07-13
    days on market $269,500 Active 111 DOM
50. 2026-07-13
    days on market $269,500 Active 110 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,070 · $423/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,070 · $423/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$5,070
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,037
• − Management: −$2,037
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$6,897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,655
• After-tax cash flow: $-973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,400–$25,200 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in Westward Pointe is ready for immediate occupancy with minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint accents — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Selman El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Sealy J H F TX #717/1,662 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Sealy H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sealy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,842
• Composite: 34.42/100
• National rank: #5200
• State rank: #405 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Sealy

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #7463

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sealy, TX
• County: Austin · 32,206 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,846
• Household income: $76,210
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Austin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,206 people
• By 2030: 33,459 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 35,809 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 37,933 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 44,179 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 47,870 · +48.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Austin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.8pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+58.4 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.57%
• Current HPI: 195.9491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $276,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $286,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $290,000 HARMLS