Is 1279 Thornbird Trl in Sealy, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.0% cap rate and $-272/mo modeled cash flow at a $249,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1279 Thornbird Trl?

The modeled cap rate is 5.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,054/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 38.05

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +11.2/15.0
Cash flow +7.8/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.8/10.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
1% rule +3.2/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
DSCR +1.9/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$249,900

1279 Thornbird Trl · Sealy, TX 77474

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 7,431 sqft lot Garage $149/sqft · 8% below area Est $273k · 8% under $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

An extended covered patio with retractable shades and no back neighbors sets the scene for outdoor living at this 2023-built Westward Pointe home. Inside, 4 bedrooms and 2 baths share a single-story layout with 1,680 sq ft. The open kitchen, dining and living areas keep everyone connected, while the granite-topped island offers extra seating and prep space. Stainless appliances, soft-close cabinets and a pantry complete the kitchen. The primary suite features double sinks and a walk-in closet. Owner-added improvements include landscaping, a full sprinkler system, stained fencing, upgraded lighting, garage organization panels and additional attic flooring.

Key facts

Stainless appliances
Covered patio
Retractable shades

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (19.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (17.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $202k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Sealy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 70/100 on livability (#342 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Sealy ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #405 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Selman El (math 31% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 639 students, 71% FRL); Sealy J H (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 664 students, 63% FRL); Sealy H S (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 903 students, 61% FRL).
Market conditions: 460 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 108d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 410 units permitted in Austin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Austin County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $201,770 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.82% ✗
Cap rate: 4.98%
Cash-on-cash: -4.67%
DSCR: 0.79
GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $272,581
List price: $249,900
Delta: -8.32%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1143 Buffalograss Trl	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,677 (-0%)	0mo	$249,900	$149	89
2314 Perdido Bay Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-2%)	3mo	$274,990	$166	81
1318 Bison View Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,809 (+8%)	4mo	$280,000	$155	81
2303 Perdido Bay Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-2%)	3mo	$274,990	$166	81
1310 Bison View Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-5%)	4mo	$279,999	$176	79
1237 Waterside Trce	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,817 (+8%)	4mo	$279,990	$154	70
2302 Perdido Bay Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,476 (-12%)	1mo	$229,990	$156	62
2310 Perdido Bay Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,476 (-12%)	1mo	$229,990	$156	57
2607 Foxgrove Ln	0.34mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+12%)	4mo	$279,990	$149	56
2702 Alamonte Dr	0.45mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+12%)	0mo	$264,990	$141	54
2703 Alamonte Dr	0.45mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+12%)	2mo	$264,990	$141	52
2701 Alamonte Dr	0.46mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+12%)	2mo	$264,990	$141	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -24.1%
Equity multiple: 0.18×
Total profit: $-57,713
Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

IRR: -19.2%
Equity multiple: -0.03×
Total profit: $-72,054
Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 26 active · 24 under contract
Months of supply: 7.4 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $278,240 ($162/sqft)
Median days on market: 109 d
This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +0.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77474

Active inventory: 460
Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,054 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,070/yr
Insurance: −$104
HOA: −$58
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
Net cashflow: $-272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,399

Max offer price $201,770

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-131	-5% $-202	+0% $-272	+5% $-343	+10% $-414
Rent	-10% $-435	-5% $-354	+0% $-272	+5% $-191	+10% $-110
Rate	-1.0pp $-147	-0.5pp $-209	base $-272	+0.5pp $-337	+1.0pp $-403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $62,475
Closing costs: $7,497
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2302 Perdido Bay Ln Sealy, TX	4.0	2.0	1476	$2,000	$1.36	0d	1	0.41mi
305 Morning Dove Trl Sealy, TX	4.0	2.0	1845	$2,375	$1.29	113d	1	1.02mi
118 White Wing Ln Sealy, TX	3.0	2.0	2007	$1,846	$0.92	107d	1	1.02mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Full ownership
HOA & community: Part of Westward Pointe ResCom associationAssociation amenities include playground, park, pool and trailsCommunity features include community pool, curbs and guttersAnnual association fee of $700 covering common areas

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with 2 spacesDrivewayGarage with automatic door opener
Security: Smoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential single-family homeBuilder: D.R. HortonHome faces southeastSlab foundationBuilt in 2023
Construction: Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roof
Exterior features: Covered patioPatio and deckPrivate yardFenced backyardSprinkler/irrigation systemPond on lotSubdivision settingConcrete road access

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeFree-standing rangeDisposalMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandPantryWalk-in pantryGranite counters
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (15 x 13)Bedroom on first floor (11 x 12)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 13)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 12)Up to 4 possible bedrooms total
Flooring: CarpetPlank flooringVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom on first floor (11 x 10)
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)HVAC included in energy-efficient features
Interior features: All bedrooms on main levelDouble vanity in primary bathGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboMain level primary bedroomPantrySelf-closing cabinet doors and drawersTub/showerWalk-in pantryWalk-in closetsWindow treatmentsCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsWindow coverings
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupWasher and dryer includedUtility room on first floor (7 x 7)

HOA detail $58/mo · $696/yr

Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 50 events

2026-10-14

days on market $249,900 Active 23 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $249,900 Active 22 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $249,900 Active 21 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $249,900 Active 20 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $249,900 Active 19 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $249,900 Active 18 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $249,900 Active 17 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $249,900 Active 16 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $249,900 Active 15 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $249,900 Active 14 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $249,900 Active 11 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $249,900 Active 10 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $249,900 Active 9 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $249,900 Active 8 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $249,900 Active 7 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $249,900 Active 6 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $249,900 Active 5 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $249,900 Active 4 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $249,900 Active 2 DOM
2026-09-22

remarks 699-char remark
2026-09-22

pricedays on marketlisting id $249,900 Active 1 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $259,000 Active 171 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $259,000 Active 165 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $259,000 Active 164 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $259,000 Active 162 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $259,000 Active 160 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $259,000 Active 158 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $259,000 Active 157 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $259,000 Active 156 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $259,000 Active 154 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $259,000 Active 153 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $259,000 Active 152 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $259,000 Active 151 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $259,000 Active 150 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $259,000 Active 149 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $259,000 Active 148 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $259,000 Active 147 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $259,000 Active 146 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $259,000 Active 145 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $259,000 Active 144 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $259,000 Active 143 DOM
2026-08-13

pricedays on market $259,000 Active 142 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $269,500 Active 141 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $269,500 Active 140 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $269,500 Active 139 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $269,500 Active 138 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $269,500 Active 137 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $5,070 · $423/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $5,070 · $423/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $24,649
− Mortgage interest: −$13,998
− Property taxes: −$5,070
− Insurance: −$1,250
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,972
− Management: −$1,972
− HOA: −$696
− Depreciation: −$7,270
Taxable loss: −$7,579

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,819
After-tax cash flow: $-1,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,400–$25,200 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in Westward Pointe is ready for immediate occupancy with minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint accents — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Selman El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Sealy J H F TX #717/1,662 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Sealy H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Sealy ISD
NCES district ID: 4839630
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $57,842
Composite: 34.42/100
National rank: #5200
State rank: #405 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Sealy

Score: 70/100
State rank: #342
US rank: #7463

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Sealy, TX
County: Austin · 32,206 people
Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
Population (ZIP): 14,846
Household income: $76,210
Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

Population outlook (Austin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 32,206 people
By 2030: 33,459 · +3.9%
By 2040: 35,809 · +11.2%
By 2050: 37,933 · +17.8%
By 2075: 44,179 · +37.2%
By 2100: 47,870 · +48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Austin

2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 81.0%
2008→2024 swing: -11.8pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -62.7pp
All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+58.4 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -130.57%
Current HPI: 195.9491
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

2026-09-21 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
2026-09-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-08-22 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
2026-08-22 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
2026-08-12 Price Changed $259,000 HARMLS
2026-07-01 Price Changed $269,500 HARMLS
2026-07-01 Price Changed $268,500 HARMLS
2026-05-05 Price Changed $276,000 HARMLS
2026-04-19 Price Changed $286,000 HARMLS
2026-03-24 Listed $290,000 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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