3411 S Camino Seco #328

Tucson, AZ 85730

$72,500C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Active · 140 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,326/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$380
• Tax + insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $546/mo
• Annual: $6,558/yr
• Cap rate: 15.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.30%
• DSCR: 2.44
• 1% rule: 1.83%
• Cash to close: $20,300

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $546 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $501 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Miles-Exploratory Learning Center (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #898 of 1,109 statewide, top 83%, 314 students, 42% FRL); Ida Flood Dodge Traditional Middle Magnet School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 396 students, 52% FRL); University High School (math 90% / reading 90%, grade A+, #1 of 381 statewide, top 0%, 1,060 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 60% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 18% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Tucson Unified District (4403) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.