3411 S Camino Seco #328 · Tucson, AZ 85730

$72,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 140 Days on market

Built 1981 Good condition 55 ac lot $81/sqft · 35% above area Est $54k · 35% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FINANCING AVAILABLE, call for details. Welcome to Rincon Valley--an inviting 55+ community offering comfort, convenience, and resort-style amenities! This updated 900 sq. ft., 2-bed, 2-bath home features luxury vinyl flooring, newer windows and lighting, a remodeled 2022 kitchen with a large 8.5' x 3.8' island, and a spacious primary suite with office area. Enjoy peace of mind with a newer furnace and charming curb appeal with citrus trees and rose bushes. Community highlights include two pools, tennis & pickleball courts, clubhouse activities, community dinners & dances, dog park, grill & bonfire area, plus laundry services. Rincon Valley's unique Health Shed offers walkers and medical equipment for added convenience, and man-gate security with wellness checks brings comfort and sup

Key facts

• 54.69 acre lot
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $546 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Miles-Exploratory Learning Center (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #898 of 1,109 statewide, top 83%, 314 students, 42% FRL); Ida Flood Dodge Traditional Middle Magnet School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 396 students, 52% FRL); University High School (math 90% / reading 90%, grade A+, #1 of 381 statewide, top 0%, 1,060 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 60% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 18% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Tucson Unified District (4403) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $501 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.30%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,771
• List price: $72,500
• Delta: 34.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3411 S Camino Seco #424	0.10mi	2/1.0	812 (-10%)	11mo	$40,000	$49	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $19,192
• Equity at exit: $10,810

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $46,594
• Equity at exit: $6,268

Cash invested: $20,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85730

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,326 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$380
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$91 /mo · $1,088/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $546

Break-even live

Break-even rent $634

Max offer price $72,500

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $597	-5% $572	+0% $546	+5% $521	+10% $496
Rent	-10% $442	-5% $494	+0% $546	+5% $599	+10% $651
Rate	-1.0pp $583	-0.5pp $565	base $546	+0.5pp $528	+1.0pp $509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,125
• Closing costs: $2,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3673 S Camino Seco Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	800	$945	$1.18	25d	1	0.25mi
8838 E Arbor St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	799	$1,295	$1.62	21d	1	0.54mi
9170 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	668	$1,094	$1.64	3d	2	0.74mi
8981 E Golf Links Rd Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	971	$1,890	$1.95	45d	1	0.75mi
8250 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,600	$1.85	3d	22	0.94mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	610	$1,094	$1.79	45d	1	1.00mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	610	$1,240	$2.03	3d	1	1.00mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	880	$1,308	$1.49	4d	1	1.00mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	22d	1	1.10mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	4d	1	1.10mi
7983 E Escalante Rd Unit 3 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,075	$1.26	16d	1	1.11mi
2425 S Rose Peak Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,200	$1.46	18d	1	1.16mi
9746 E Sascha St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,800	$1.76	16d	1	1.35mi
9961 E Skyward Way Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,550	$1.53	4d	1	1.47mi
3892 S Evergreen Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	730	$1,295	$1.77	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $72,500 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,500 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,500 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,500 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,500 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,500 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $72,500 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,500 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,500 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,500 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $72,500 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,500 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,500 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,500 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,500 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-02-28
    price $72,500 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    FINANCING AVAILABLE, call for details. Welcome to Rincon Valley--an inviting 55+ community offering comfort, convenience, and resort-style amenities! This updated 900 sq. ft., 2-bed, 2-bath home features luxury vinyl flooring, newer windows and lighting, a remodeled 2022 kitchen with a large 8.5' x 3.8' island, and a spacious primary suite with office area. Enjoy peace of mind with a newer furnace and charming curb appeal with citrus trees and rose bushes. Community highlights include two pools, tennis & pickleball courts, clubhouse activities, community dinners & dances, dog park, grill & bonfire area, plus laundry services. Rincon Valley's unique Health Shed offers walkers and medical equipment for added convenience, and man-gate security with wellness checks brings comfort and sup

17. 2026-02-01
    listed $75,000 Active 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    FINANCING AVAILABLE, call for details. Welcome to Rincon Valley--an inviting 55+ community offering comfort, convenience, and resort-style amenities! This updated 900 sq. ft., 2-bed, 2-bath home features luxury vinyl flooring, newer windows and lighting, a remodeled 2022 kitchen with a large 8.5' x 3.8' island, and a spacious primary suite with office area. Enjoy peace of mind with a newer furnace and charming curb appeal with citrus trees and rose bushes. Community highlights include two pools, tennis & pickleball courts, clubhouse activities, community dinners & dances, dog park, grill & bonfire area, plus laundry services. Rincon Valley's unique Health Shed offers walkers and medical equipment for added convenience, and man-gate security with wellness checks brings comfort and sup

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,061
• − Property taxes: −$1,088
• − Insurance: −$362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,273
• − Management: −$1,273
• − Depreciation: −$2,109
• Taxable income: $5,746
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,379
• After-tax cash flow: $5,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 900 sq. ft. home in Rincon Valley is in good condition with updated features and charming curb appeal. Minor landscaping and painting improvements can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting exterior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting
• Both Landscaping with native plants — Reduces maintenance and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting ↑
• Both Landscaping with native plants — Reduces maintenance and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,399
• Household income: $62,090
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1364.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.41%
• Current HPI: 304.999
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.16%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $72,500 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-01 Listed $75,000 MLSSAZ