30288 Bridger Way

Round Mountain, CA 96069

$33,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,043/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,880
• Tax + insurance: −$598
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-863/mo
• Annual: $-10,358/yr
• Cap rate: 3.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.32%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $100,380

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $33k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-863 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $33k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $47 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,311 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 16.3% of price.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.