30288 Bridger Way · Round Mountain, CA 96069

$33,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1960 2.00 ac lot ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The original home likely predates building permits. There is a septic but it's not tested. We didn't find permits or violations of recorded. It was partially gutted and used by growers from 2010-2020. On the addition the roof was modified to metal, the rafters appears without dry rot or termites but it is leaking (add needs roof). The structure seems well built but is NOT complete and was gutted. Water lines go all over the place, water was likely used from an abandoned adjacent lot's spring. Needs well or to buy the adjacent property. sold 'as is. ' the home needs to be restored

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer; Cable not available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two levels; Under construction
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Metal roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Under construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Dirt road access; Has a view

Interior

• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Other heating type; No cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features; Wood flooring; Wood burning fireplace

🏗️ New construction. The $33,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $358,500.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $33k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-863 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $33k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,311 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $47 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 16.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.32%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $358,500
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30366 Bridger Way	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,494 (-0%)	1mo	$79,900	$53	86
15132 Anthony Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,400 (-7%)	23mo	$335,000	$239	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-65,213
• Equity at exit: $104,332

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-80,172
• Equity at exit: $125,600

Cash invested: $100,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96069

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,043 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,880
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$448 /mo · $5,378/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-863

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,136

Max offer price $233,594

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,625
• Closing costs: $10,755
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $33,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $33,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $33,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $33,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $33,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $33,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $33,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 587-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on marketlisting id $33,000 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $39,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    remarks 37-char remark
14. 2026-06-05
    listed $39,000 Active 45 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $195 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $251 · $21/mo
• Expected delta: +$55/yr (+$5/mo · 28.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,082
• − Property taxes: −$5,378
• − Insurance: −$1,792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$10,429
• Taxable loss: −$17,083
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,100
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Round Mountain

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1311
• US rank: #26653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,371

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 26% Hispanic / Latino 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 4% Scottish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.01%
• Current HPI: 107.5676
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $33,000 SAOR
• 2026-06-09 Listed $33,000 SAOR
• 2026-06-04 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-03-17 Listed $39,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $195 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.