16 N Star Vale Dr Unit 131B

Star Valley, AZ 85541

$79,500C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 173 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $401/mo
• Annual: $4,812/yr
• Cap rate: 12.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.62%
• DSCR: 1.96
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $22,260

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#380 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 706 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.8% in Star Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.