16 N Star Vale Dr Unit 131B · Star Valley, AZ 85541

$79,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured · 173 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $195/sqft · 48% above area Est $54k · 48% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great views from this absolutely adorable 1 bedroom 1 bathroom tiny home. Living room has a corner dining table as well as a futon. There is a lot of natural light. Kitchen has a washer/dryer. There is a covered parking space up front. The enclosed side yard is perfect for your pet. Enjoy the included amenities, including a gym, pickball court, and clubhouse. The $650 per month space fee includes water, sewer, trash. Please verify the rent with the office.

Key facts

• Natural light
• Great views
• Gym

Tags

• GREAT VIEWS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• COVERED PARKING SPACE
• ENCLOSED SIDE YARD
• INCLUDED AMENITIES
• GYM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.8% in Star Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#380 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 706 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.62%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,669
• List price: $79,500
• Delta: 48.13%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3933 Az-260 #136	0.41mi	1/1.0	400 (-2%)	9mo	$50,000	$125	70
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr #11	0.14mi	1/1.0	456 (+12%)	6mo	$61,400	$135	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $12,674
• Equity at exit: $11,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $43,994
• Equity at exit: $6,874

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 706
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,192/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $695

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $456	-5% $428	+0% $401	+5% $374	+10% $346
Rent	-10% $306	-5% $353	+0% $401	+5% $448	+10% $496
Rate	-1.0pp $441	-0.5pp $421	base $401	+0.5pp $380	+1.0pp $359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-09
   price $79,500 460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Great views from this absolutely adorable 1 bedroom 1 bathroom tiny home. Living room has a corner dining table as well as a futon. There is a lot of natural light. Kitchen has a washer/dryer. There is a covered parking space up front. The enclosed side yard is perfect for your pet. Enjoy the included amenities, including a gym, pickball court, and clubhouse. The $650 per month space fee includes water, sewer, trash. Please verify the rent with the office.

2. 2026-02-16
   price $82,300 460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Great views from this absolutely adorable 1 bedroom 1 bathroom tiny home. Living room has a corner dining table as well as a futon. There is a lot of natural light. Kitchen has a washer/dryer. There is a covered parking space up front. The enclosed side yard is perfect for your pet. Enjoy the included amenities, including a gym, pickball court, and clubhouse. The $650 per month space fee includes water, sewer, trash. Please verify the rent with the office.

3. 2026-01-17
   historical
4. 2025-12-04
   listed $85,000 Active 460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Great views from this absolutely adorable 1 bedroom 1 bathroom tiny home. Living room has a corner dining table as well as a futon. There is a lot of natural light. Kitchen has a washer/dryer. There is a covered parking space up front. The enclosed side yard is perfect for your pet. Enjoy the included amenities, including a gym, pickball court, and clubhouse. The $650 per month space fee includes water, sewer, trash. Please verify the rent with the office.

5. 2025-12-04
   listed $85,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Great views from this absolutely adorable 1 bedroom 1 bathroom tiny home. Living room has a corner dining table as well as a futon. There is a lot of natural light. Kitchen has a washer/dryer. There is a covered parking space up front. The enclosed side yard is perfect for your pet. Enjoy the included amenities, including a gym, pickball court, and clubhouse. The $650 per month space fee includes water, sewer, trash. Please verify the rent with the office.

6. 2025-12-02
   historical
7. 2025-08-14
   listed $85,000 Active
8. 2025-02-17
   soldstatus $68,000 Closed
9. 2025-01-01
   listed $68,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone D · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$1,192
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $3,770
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$905
• After-tax cash flow: $3,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with modern appliances and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and functionality, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Upgrade to modern flooring — Improves aesthetics and value
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances convenience and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Upgrade to modern flooring — Improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances convenience and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Star Valley

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #26699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Star Valley, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+16.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $79,500 CAAR
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $82,300 CAAR
• 2026-01-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $85,000 CAAR
• 2025-12-04 Listed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Sold (MLS) $68,000 CAAR
• 2025-01-01 Listed $68,000 CAAR