16627 Carse Ave

Harvey, IL 60426

$218,000F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,366 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,712/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax + insurance: −$710
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-501/mo
• Annual: $-6,009/yr
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.84%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $61,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $218k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-501 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (31.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (21.5% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#539 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Barack H Obama Learning Academy (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #850 of 2,056 statewide, top 45%, 468 students, 0% FRL); Thornwood High School (math 8% / reading 9%, grade F, #584 of 693 statewide, top 85%, 1,996 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 9.3% in Harvey — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?