16627 Carse Ave · Harvey, IL 60426

$218,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,366 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1998 3,720 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and beautifully updated! built 1999 This spacious 3-bedroom foster home features freshly painted interiors, large bedrooms, and a comfortable master suite with walk-in closet and shared main bath. Enjoy a bright living room, formal dining area, and a huge family room that opens to the kitchen - perfect for entertaining and family gatherings. The home also offers a lovely backyard, a 2-car garage, and a convenient location close to shopping, schools, and transportation. property have 2pin # 29204200070000 & 29204200060000. tax does not reflect any exemptions.

Key facts

• 3,720 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1998

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Split-level / tri-level design; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Built approximately 26–30 years ago
• Exterior features: Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (15 x 13)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (master and two additional bedrooms on the second level)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfinished full basement; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (7 x 5)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-501 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (31.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 9.3% in Harvey — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#539 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Barack H Obama Learning Academy (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #850 of 2,056 statewide, top 45%, 468 students, 0% FRL); Thornwood High School (math 8% / reading 9%, grade F, #584 of 693 statewide, top 85%, 1,996 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.

Recommended offer $148,622 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.84%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $87,073
• Equity at exit: $196,392

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $281,972
• Equity at exit: $423,526

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60426

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,712 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$619 /mo · $7,431/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,346

Max offer price $148,622

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-377	-5% $-439	+0% $-501	+5% $-562	+10% $-624
Rent	-10% $-636	-5% $-568	+0% $-501	+5% $-433	+10% $-366
Rate	-1.0pp $-391	-0.5pp $-445	base $-501	+0.5pp $-557	+1.0pp $-615

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $218,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $218,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $218,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $218,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $218,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $218,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 478-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $218,000 Active 82 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,431 · $619/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,431 · $619/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$7,431
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$9,817
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,356
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Harvey

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #539
• US rank: #11162

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harvey, IL
• City population: 23,066
• Population (ZIP): 23,066

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 12% White 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.36%
• Current HPI: 313.7895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+1644.0% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $218,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $218,001 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $218,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Listed $225,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $198,500 Public Records
• 2026-02-05 Sold (MLS) $198,100 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Listed $249,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $57,950 Public Records
• 2025-08-18 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Sold (MLS) $57,950 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-06 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-12 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-04 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $113,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-26 Price Changed $68,300 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-11 Listed $113,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-01 Sold (MLS) $129,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-21 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-08 Listed $129,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-15 Sold (MLS) $71,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-09 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-23 Listed $70,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-16 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-23 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-06 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-27 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-17 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $352,500 Public Records
• 1995-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $7,431 · +38.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.