16 Canal Rd

Rock Hill, NY 12790

$474,900D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,678/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,490
• Tax + insurance: −$671
• HOA: −$113
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-1,948/mo
• Annual: $-23,381/yr
• Cap rate: 1.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.58%
• DSCR: 0.22
• 1% rule: 0.35%
• Cash to close: $132,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (72.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (64.7% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (72.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Emma C Chase School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 228 students, 57% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 2.6% in Rock Hill — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.