16 Canal Rd · Rock Hill, NY 12790

$474,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1993 10,750 sqft lot $440/sqft · 14% below area Est $638k · 26% under $113/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked within the forever-wild private community of Wolf Lake, 16 Canal Road offers something increasingly rare in this market, a purpose-built lake home, not a cabin conversion, designed from the ground up for year-round comfort and lake living. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath chalet sits on the lake side of Canal Road, putting the shared dock and deeded lake access just steps from your back deck without ever crossing the street. Southern exposure and a wraparound deck framing the surrounding woodland make the outdoor experience here genuinely hard to replicate. Inside, cathedral ceilings anchor an open-concept living area filled with natural light. The chalet layout adds a full upper level with a

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1993
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as Single Family Residence; Living area reported from other source
• HOA & community: Part of Wolf Lake association; Annual association fee of $1,350; Association maintains common areas; Association amenities include clubhouse, playground, basketball court and other recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric service: NYSEG; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Full basement
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Level lot; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ductless cooling; Baseboard heating; Electric heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Beamed ceilings; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; High-speed internet; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Walk-through kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (72.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (64.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (72.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 2.6% in Rock Hill — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Emma C Chase School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 228 students, 57% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,699 (72.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.35% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.58%
• DSCR: 0.22
• GRM: 23.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $637,972
• List price: $474,900
• Delta: -25.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Bonaparte Trl	0.06mi	2/1.5	1,118 (+4%)	22mo	$539,000	$482	71
198 Wolf Lake Rd	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,214 (+12%)	13mo	$350,000	$288	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $134,566
• Equity at exit: $427,828

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $493,905
• Equity at exit: $922,626

Cash invested: $132,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12790

• Home prices YoY: 26.8%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 23.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,490
• Tax from tax record: −$473 /mo · $5,673/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-1,948

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,144

Max offer price $130,699

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,725
• Closing costs: $14,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $113 · $1,356/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $474,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $474,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $474,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $474,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $474,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $474,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $474,900 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $474,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $474,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $474,900 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $474,900 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $474,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $474,900 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $474,900 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    listed $474,900 Active 1601-char remark
16. 2026-01-01
    historical
17. 2025-07-03
    listed $499,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,673 · $473/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,849 · $571/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,177/yr (+$98/mo · 20.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,602
• − Property taxes: −$5,673
• − Insurance: −$2,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$13,815
• Taxable loss: −$32,907
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,898
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rock Hill

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,661
• Population (ZIP): 4,341

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Slovak 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 95.79%
• Current HPI: 452.7233
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $474,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-03 Listed $499,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,673 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.