829 Nashville Rd

Lakeland, FL 33815

$85,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,452/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $545/mo
• Annual: $6,542/yr
• Cap rate: 13.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.49%
• DSCR: 2.22
• 1% rule: 1.71%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $545 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jesse Keen Elementary School (math 20% / reading 21%, grade F, #2,094 of 2,144 statewide, top 98%, 649 students, 67% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.