829 Nashville Rd · Lakeland, FL 33815

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1969 7,440 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention Investors!! Cash Only! This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home is located conveniently in Lakeland, with easy access to shopping, dining, and schools. This home offers laminate flooring, granite countertops in the kitchen and a one car carport. On top of that, this had a metal roof over in 2023. This is the perfect investment for someone to expand their real estate portfolio! Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Storage shed
• Durable lvt flooring

Tags

• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• DURABLE LVT FLOORING
• METAL ROOF
• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-3
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No association/HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Paved access/drive
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available; High-speed/ broadband internet available; Electricity available; Phone service available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0 to less than 1/4 acre lot (approximately 0.17 acre)
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s); Additional storage; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: other (unspecified setup)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $545 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jesse Keen Elementary School (math 20% / reading 21%, grade F, #2,094 of 2,144 statewide, top 98%, 649 students, 67% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.49%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $85,776
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.93×
• Total profit: $236,251
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33815

• Home prices YoY: 12.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,452 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,450/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $762

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
457 Arapahoe Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	3d	1	0.71mi
455 Arapahoe Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,199	$1.60	19d	1	0.72mi
808 S Central Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	23d	1	1.32mi
1113 S Central Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	672	$1,700	$2.53	11d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $85,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $89,900
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $95,000 Active
18. 2025-11-03
    historical $1,000
19. 2025-10-20
    listed $1,000
20. 2024-06-12
    soldstatus $65,000
21. 2024-06-07
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Attention Investors!! Cash Only! This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home is located conveniently in Lakeland, with easy access to shopping, dining, and schools. This home offers laminate flooring, granite countertops in the kitchen and a one car carport. On top of that, this had a metal roof over in 2023. This is the perfect investment for someone to expand their real estate portfolio! Schedule your private showing today!

22. 2024-05-23
    status Pending 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Attention Investors!! Cash Only! This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home is located conveniently in Lakeland, with easy access to shopping, dining, and schools. This home offers laminate flooring, granite countertops in the kitchen and a one car carport. On top of that, this had a metal roof over in 2023. This is the perfect investment for someone to expand their real estate portfolio! Schedule your private showing today!

23. 2024-05-08
    listed $67,500 Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Attention Investors!! Cash Only! This 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home is located conveniently in Lakeland, with easy access to shopping, dining, and schools. This home offers laminate flooring, granite countertops in the kitchen and a one car carport. On top of that, this had a metal roof over in 2023. This is the perfect investment for someone to expand their real estate portfolio! Schedule your private showing today!

24. 2023-05-18
    historical
25. 2021-11-20
    soldstatus $397,000
26. 1980-02-01
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,450 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,450 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,450
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,394
• − Management: −$1,394
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $5,528
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,327
• After-tax cash flow: $5,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,975
• Household income: $37,487
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% German 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.45%
• Current HPI: 424.0956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1184.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Rental Removed $1,000 REDFIN
• 2025-10-20 Listed for Rent $1,000 REDFIN
• 2024-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-07 Sold (MLS) $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-08 Listed $67,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-18 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 2021-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $397,000 Public Records
• 1980-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,450 · +13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.