3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,568 sqft ·
Built 1989
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 110 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,895/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,124
Tax + insurance
−$259
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$398
Net cashflow
$113/mo
Annual
$1,359/yr
Cap rate
6.93%
Cash-on-cash
2.26%
DSCR
1.10
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$60,032
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (11.6% below list).
It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $190k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#93 in OR, #4,626 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
Oakland SD 1 (rural): math 44% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #21 of 183 in OR (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Oakland Elementary School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #143 of 412 statewide, top 38%, 222 students, 65% FRL); Lincoln Middle School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade D, #33 of 128 statewide, top 27%, 185 students, 49% FRL); Oakland High School (math 34% / reading 64%, grade D, #50 of 143 statewide, top 37%, 221 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $164k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YQMFG990RXR4V4
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29