93 Lugo Dr

Fairfield, CA 94533

$139,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,749/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$232
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $1,211/mo
• Annual: $14,533/yr
• Cap rate: 16.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.34%
• DSCR: 2.66
• 1% rule: 1.98%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#314 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Fairfield-Suisun Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #238 of 517 in CA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tolenas Academy of Music And Media (583 students, 61% FRL); Grange Middle (780 students, 73% FRL); Fairfield High (math 16% / reading 41%, grade F, #774 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 1,633 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 47% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 265 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 3.0% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: HVAC unit — Visible wear and tear
• Moderate: exterior siding — Weathered and discolored
• Major: interior walls — Worn paint