309 Jones Ave

Burlington, NJ 08016

$249,900C+

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,691 sqft · Built 1889 · Townhouse · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,717/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$752
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $84/mo
• Annual: $1,013/yr
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.76%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#89 in NJ, #2,359 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Burlington City Public School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #439 of 472 in NJ (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Wilbur Watts Intermediate School (math 5% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,303 statewide, top 88%, 449 students, 64% FRL); Burlington City High School (math 9% / reading 35%, grade F, #346 of 399 statewide, top 88%, 813 students, 51% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1889 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 9 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $250k implies a 324% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.9% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1889 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.