309 Jones Ave · Burlington, NJ 08016

$249,900

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,691 sqft · Townhouse public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1889 2,004 sqft lot Est $287k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 5-bedroom, 1-bath home located in Burlington, offering plenty of room for comfortable living! This well-maintained property features a fully fenced-in yard—perfect for outdoor entertaining—along with a relaxing back patio ideal for gatherings. Step inside to discover a bright and inviting interior with a flexible layout, or even a home office setup. The beautifully updated kitchen boasts newer stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet space, and modern finishes, making meal prep and entertaining a breeze. Newer flooring and windows throughout enhance both comfort and energy efficiency, while the renovated bathroom provides a clean, contemporary touch. Major system updat

Key facts

• Renovated bathroom
• Fully fenced-in yard
• Newer screen door

Tags

• FULLY FENCED-IN YARD
• BACK PATIO
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• RENOVATED BATHROOM
• NEWER SCREEN DOOR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric available; Natural gas available; Hot water: natural gas
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Flat roof; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Brick/mortar and block foundation; Patio(s)
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Chain link fencing; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven/range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level; Two bedrooms on the second upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper levels)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric baseboard heating; Natural gas heating fuel; Electric cooling fuel
• Interior features: Formal separate dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Full tub with shower; High ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $227k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.9% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#89 in NJ, #2,359 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Burlington City Public School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #439 of 472 in NJ (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Wilbur Watts Intermediate School (math 5% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,303 statewide, top 88%, 449 students, 64% FRL); Burlington City High School (math 9% / reading 35%, grade F, #346 of 399 statewide, top 88%, 813 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $250k implies a 324% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1889 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1889 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.76%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,470
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
140 E Federal St	0.12mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,760 (+4%)	3mo	$239,000	$136	78
416 St. Mary's St	0.10mi	5/2.0	1,530 (-10%)	0mo	$235,000	$154	75
206 Jones Ave	0.05mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,620 (-4%)	5mo	$250,000	$154	75
334 Barclay St	0.20mi	5/2.0	1,812 (+7%)	4mo	$272,250	$150	71
645 Bordentown Rd	0.41mi	5/3.0	1,658 (-2%)	6mo	$285,000	$172	64
104 W Union St	0.51mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,656 (-2%)	5mo	$315,000	$190	64
511 Linden Ave	0.09mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,504 (-11%)	2mo	$140,000	$93	63
25 E Federal St	0.18mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,824 (+8%)	5mo	$310,000	$170	61
229 W Broad St	0.59mi	5/2.0	1,812 (+7%)	1mo	$330,000	$182	56
103 W Union St	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,612 (-5%)	6mo	$195,000	$121	53
26 W Pearl St	0.51mi	5/2.0	1,824 (+8%)	11mo	$320,000	$175	50
24 W Pearl St	0.51mi	5/2.5	1,864 (+10%)	10mo	$335,000	$180	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-34,873
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-22,443
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08016

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,717 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,651/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,610

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $155	+0% $84	+5% $14	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-23	+0% $84	+5% $192	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $210	-0.5pp $148	base $84	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-46

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 Lawrence St Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.0	1859	$2,000	$1.08	7d	1	0.18mi
516 Columbus Rd Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,750	$1.72	16d	1	0.31mi
516 Columbus Rd Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.0	1404	$2,400	$1.71	0d	1	0.31mi
229 Penn St Burlington, NJ	6.0	3.0	2096	$2,649	$1.26	18d	1	0.34mi
103 W Union St Burlington, NJ	4.0	2.5	1333	$2,200	$1.65	16d	1	0.50mi
105 W Union St Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.5	1645	$2,000	$1.22	3d	1	0.50mi
256 Radcliffe St Bristol, PA	4.0	2.0	1900	$3,250	$1.71	0d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-03-18
    listed $249,900 Active
17. 2025-01-23
    historical
18. 2025-01-14
    status Active
19. 2025-01-02
    status Pending
20. 2024-12-10
    price $160,000
21. 2024-12-04
    price $165,000
22. 2024-11-26
    price $170,000
23. 2024-11-17
    price $175,000
24. 2024-10-24
    listed $185,000 Active
25. 2024-04-03
    status Pending
26. 2024-04-02
    historical
27. 2024-02-24
    status Active
28. 2024-02-22
    historical Active Under Contract
29. 2024-02-16
    status Pending
30. 2024-02-09
    status Active
31. 2024-02-07
    status Pending
32. 2023-12-16
    price $165,000
33. 2023-11-18
    listed $175,000 Active
34. 2023-08-29
    historical
35. 2023-04-27
    listed $169,000 Active
36. 2003-06-17
    soldstatus $58,900
37. 2003-04-17
    historical
38. 2003-04-09
    listed $64,900
39. 2003-04-07
    historical
40. 2003-01-04
    listed $64,900
41. 1996-09-30
    soldstatus $13,000
42. 1981-05-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,651 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,437 · $370/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,786/yr (+$149/mo · 67.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 85% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,651
• − Insurance: −$6,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,608
• − Management: −$2,608
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$2,899
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$696
• After-tax cash flow: $1,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burlington City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3402430
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,122
• Composite: 16.27/100
• National rank: #9218
• State rank: #439 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #2359

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, NJ
• County: Burlington County · 323,710 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 34,920
• Household income: $98,463
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.42%
• Current HPI: 298.7935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1566.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-14 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-26 Price Changed $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-17 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-24 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-03 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-24 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-22 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-09 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-07 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-16 Price Changed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-11-18 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-08-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-27 Listed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $58,900 Public Records
• 2003-04-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-04-09 Listed $64,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-04-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-01-04 Listed $64,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1996-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records
• 1981-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,651 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.