408 Watts Ln

Maybrook, NY 12543

$225,000C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1974 · Townhouse · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,447/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$550
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $204/mo
• Annual: $2,446/yr
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.88%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#423 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 548 students, 34% FRL); Valley Central Middle School (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 982 students, 41% FRL); Valley Central High School (math 95% / reading 87%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,346 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.2% in Maybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.