408 Watts Ln · Maybrook, NY 12543

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,400 sqft · Townhouse public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1974 2,340 sqft lot $161/sqft · 28% below area Est $313k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this oversized townhome (1400 Sq ft!) Home has nice eat in kitchen and room for the family-plus convenient fenced in yard for your pets. Dont wait!

Key facts

• 2,340 sq ft lot
• Built 1974
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Single family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Other heating; No air conditioning
• Interior features: Additional unspecified interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.2% in Maybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#423 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 548 students, 34% FRL); Valley Central Middle School (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 982 students, 41% FRL); Valley Central High School (math 95% / reading 87%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,346 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.88%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,133
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -28.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 Watts Ln	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,324 (-5%)	13mo	$312,000	$236	79
411 Watts Ln	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,400 (0%)	24mo	$299,000	$214	79
207 Everett Pl	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,380 (-1%)	15mo	$312,500	$226	77
127 Blake Rd	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,320 (-6%)	15mo	$260,000	$197	76
410 Rakov Rd	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,324 (-5%)	23mo	$259,900	$196	70
408 Rakov Rd	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,324 (-5%)	23mo	$277,000	$209	69
536 Saracino Dr	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,324 (-5%)	21mo	$295,000	$223	67
219 Blake Rd	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,220 (-13%)	10mo	$265,000	$217	66
210 Country Club Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+4%)	20mo	$270,000	$185	64
543 Saracino Dr	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,220 (-13%)	21mo	$260,000	$213	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-23,335
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,020
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12543

• Home prices YoY: -6.2%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,447 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$456 /mo · $5,472/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,190

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
524 Saracino Dr Maybrook, NY	3.0	1.5	1324	$2,600	$1.96	23d	1	0.10mi
205 Everett Pl Maybrook, NY	3.0	1.5	1280	$2,600	$2.03	43d	1	0.18mi
503 Bluestone Ct Unit 208 Maybrook, NY	2.0	1.5	1040	$2,100	$2.02	14d	1	0.67mi
704 Tower Ave Unit A Maybrook, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	14d	1	0.72mi
306 Bluestone Ct Unit 223 Maybrook, NY	2.0	2.0	1070	$2,450	$2.29	14d	1	0.76mi
306 Bluestone Ct Unit 116 Maybrook, NY	2.0	1.0	935	$2,250	$2.41	14d	1	0.76mi
401 Bluestone Ct Unit 202 Maybrook, NY	2.0	1.0	1040	$2,000	$1.92	21d	1	0.80mi
304 Tower Ave Maybrook, NY	2.0	1.0	906	$2,200	$2.43	14d	1	0.95mi
201 Main St Apt 5 Maybrook, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	14d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $225,000 Active 165-char remark
17. 2024-12-12
    listed $299,900 Active
18. 2013-12-18
    price $189,300

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Come see this oversized townhome (1400 Sq ft!) Home has nice eat in kitchen and room for the family-plus convenient fenced in yard for your pets. Dont wait!

19. 2012-10-31
    historical
20. 2012-10-31
    historical
21. 2012-04-24
    listed $83,800
22. 2012-04-24
    listed
23. 2006-08-10
    soldstatus $197,160
24. 2006-06-28
    soldstatus $197,160

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Come see this oversized townhome (1400 Sq ft!) Home has nice eat in kitchen and room for the family-plus convenient fenced in yard for your pets. Dont wait!

25. 2006-06-02
    historical

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Come see this oversized townhome (1400 Sq ft!) Home has nice eat in kitchen and room for the family-plus convenient fenced in yard for your pets. Dont wait!

26. 2006-02-02
    listed $197,160

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    Come see this oversized townhome (1400 Sq ft!) Home has nice eat in kitchen and room for the family-plus convenient fenced in yard for your pets. Dont wait!

27. 2002-11-27
    soldstatus $114,500
28. 2002-11-25
    soldstatus $114,500
29. 2002-10-07
    historical
30. 2002-10-07
    price $120,000
31. 2002-09-11
    listed $114,500
32. 1989-09-28
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$5,472
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,350
• − Management: −$2,350
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,076
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$258
• After-tax cash flow: $2,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Central School District (Montgomery)
• NCES district ID: 3619680
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,186
• Composite: 47.53/100
• National rank: #2271
• State rank: #299 of 590 in NY

Livability — Maybrook

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #7384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maybrook, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,147

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.16%
• Current HPI: 302.6098
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-12 Listed $299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-18 Price Changed $189,300 HGMLS
• 2012-10-31 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2012-10-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-24 Listed — HGMLS
• 2012-04-24 Listed $83,800 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $197,160 Public Records
• 2006-06-28 Sold (MLS) $197,160 HGMLS
• 2006-06-02 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2006-02-02 Listed $197,160 HGMLS
• 2002-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $114,500 Public Records
• 2002-11-25 Sold (MLS) $114,500 HGMLS
• 2002-10-07 Price Changed $120,000 HGMLS
• 2002-10-07 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2002-09-11 Listed $114,500 HGMLS
• 1989-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,472 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.