426 Pates Lake Ct

Lovejoy, GA 30228

$285,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,067 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,023/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$503
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-433/mo
• Annual: $-5,190/yr
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.50%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-433 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (29.0% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#317 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dutchtown Elementary School (math 25% / reading 28%, grade F, #718 of 1,228 statewide, top 59%, 932 students, 47% FRL); Dutchtown Middle School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #258 of 470 statewide, top 55%, 1,092 students, 50% FRL); Dutchtown High (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #84 of 424 statewide, top 20%, 1,861 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 547 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $285k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.